Do the technicals still show that Nasdaq/ERTS will go down in the near future? I find it hard to believe that the recovery started on practically no good news from anybody. Does the 1650 still have to be retested?
The daily chart - the date was August 25. You have to divide my numbers in half because the stock has split. I remember the numbers so clearly because I had gone short that morning. What a ride. I didn't cover because I wanted to see what would happen if a stock hit -0-. Talk about stupid. When they opened it at 130 I almost had a heart attack. I covered that afternoon for the cost of my commission and have not traded the stock since.
Today ERTS broke yesterday's high on much lower volume. It tested the Oct high of 57.94 (made on 1.8 mill shares) on much higher volume and could not break through. The candlestick pattern is called a 'last engulfing' which is a bullish engulfing at the top of a long uptrend. It, too, is a reversal signal. The only confirmation needed is a lower close the next day.
The Nas broke to a higher high on lower volume today. So did the S&P. The Dow did yesterday. This is bearish. Trin indicators are 'overbought' but not so dramatically overbought that Monday couldn't be sideways or slightly up. If Monday is anything but a down day, the Trin will be dramatically overbought. The upticks have been extremely high all week. This is a sign of irrational exuberance and is bearish.
Downside targets on the Nas are 1852 (gap1), 1745 (gap2), and 1668 (gap3). Watch the volumes. If they accelerate on the way down, we will break the low.
And, might I add... If I'm reading the hourly chart correctly, the three lines of the uptrending fan are in place, and we're going up for the second time with a negative MACD divergence. If we come down and break the fan, she drops big again, like the drop to 45 we had the last time. Only... this time, she may not come back, because another drop of that size should be impossible to repair on the weekly chart.
Of course, I'll leave open the possibility that the fan doesn't break, in which case, hold on to your hats... she could do mid-60's on the fumes.
"I find it hard to believe that the recovery started on practically no good news from anybody."
Come on give credit where it is due, DELL started this rally by saying that they think they may hit there first quarter numbers. With that kind of newws its unbelieveable that we didn't go back to 2600.