I believe investors are worried that Tavaborole is potentially (not for sure but possibly) inferior to Valeant’s Efinaconazole. If so, the revenue potential for Tavaborole is sharply diminished. The company only has 2-3 quarters of cash left. Thus, more dilutive share offerings are possibly coming.
Recent results, using an aged population in Mexico, showed results slightly below Valeant's Efinaconzole. Present testing, which results should be expected in March or early April, are using a more representative spread of the population and from a group more representative of the American-Euro population. Deustsche Bank wrote positive comments even with the original tests that said results from the newer test equal to the last tests would definitely qualify Tavaborole for movement into the marketplace.
"Slightly below." How so? In two trials, Efinaconazole had cure rates of 15.2% and 17.8%. In Tavaborole’s first trial, the cure rate was 6.5%. That is not close. Maybe the next trial is better. If not, even if the company goes forward, doctors will not prescribe it. Efinaconazole has a time to market advantage as well.