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Lexar Media, Inc. (LEXR) Message Board

  • emcprofit emcprofit Jan 23, 2004 11:05 PM Flag

    guidance IS everything

    Earnings - next week! (at last!)

    Words LEXR should avoid:
    -- great earnings, BUT...
    -- super quarter, HOWEVER...
    -- 100% rise in earnings, ON THE OTHER HAND...
    -- increasing market share... WITH a slight worry about...
    -- our best quarter ever without a doubt, AND lower expectations in the coming...

    What they say, and how they say it means SO much...

    SNDK's overly-conservative, less than rosy, sky-is-falling approach cost shareholders plenty.

    I want an honest report from management - not sugar-coated, but not tainted with gloomy, horrible fears that don't happen in the long run. Fake is wrong... but so is extra - extra conservative warnings...

    Wal-Mart CFO a few year's ago said a statement like "the days of double-digit growth year-over-year are over"... That day, WMT stock dropped like a rock --- the CFO was replaced not too long after that. He was too blunt... too candid as he spoke to shareholders and the investment community. Too harsh.

    If there are worries, or downward pressure for whatver the reason, they need to show wisdom and discernment... instead of panicking the market - like SNDK did! SNDK had a super quarter, and good things are ahead. I think both LEXR and SNDK are real good buys at this point. I own LEXR, now... and plan to buy SNDK, next week.

    just my opinion...

    Good luck investors!

    EMC

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    • >> If there are worries, or downward pressure for whatver the reason, they need to show wisdom and discernment... instead of panicking the market - like SNDK did! SNDK had a super quarter, and good things are ahead.


      Good post. I think the reaction to SNDK has more to do with the overall market than the conservative guidance. Eli could have given the same speech in September '03 and the stock would have gone up +12. Eli has always been somewhat conservative which is also why SNDK has always had a big surprise at earnings.

    • Great post... my thoughts exactly... Its not even what he said its how he said it. Most CEO's would of said it differently... and I'm not talking sugar coating or hyping... just plain old we expect competion and some pressures on margins as expected in any hot new technology....

    • and the number one word that should not be used in the earnings release..SEASONAL.
      Apparently no one has yet looked that word up in the dictionary. If they had, Thursday's decline would already have been reversed.

      • 1 Reply to sgiersch
      • It would seem to me that it's all in the presentation. Some CFOs are good presenters and others simply don't have any talent. Pencil pushers rarely have the skills to make great presentations.
        The fundamentals of the company are the only thing that really count, and those appear to be fantastic. So what's all the paranoia about?
        They kicked ass this past quarter and will do so through out the next couple of years.
        Patience is the name of the game.

    • Good post.

      ALL LEXR has to say that they dont see the ASPs getting squeeze, that would drive both LEXR and SNDK up, and really reaffirm the comments by the analyst about SNDK being ultra conservative.

    • email investor relations and voice your opinion


      investor@lexarmedia.com


      hopefully they are smart enough to word their conference call carefully.

 

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