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PIMCO Real Estate Real Return Strategy D Message Board

  • don.leathers don.leathers Dec 13, 2012 10:07 PM Flag

    2013 Outlook for PETDX

    It is hard to find much news or research on PETDX so I have to rely on the wise people here. What factors do you think will impact PETDX performance in 2013? The fund is very intriguing but I am also retired so I have to weigh the risk / reward carefully.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Seeking Alpo writes decent articles sometimes...


    • I favor commercial equity REITS in the next year. That is what PETDX invests in. It tracks the Dow Jones US Select REIT index. The largest holding is Simon Property Group (SPG). My suggestion is to research that index and use Morningstar. Look at the top 10 holdings for an ETF like RWR which also tracks that index. Look at each stock, like SPG and see what the analysts are saying. PETDX will move as that index moves and because it is leveraged through its bond holdings it will beat the index or do worse than the index. It will also pay out capital gain each year and people will whine about it, but the fund has no choice. It is not a fund for taxable accounts unless you're willing to pay the taxes. It is ideal for a Roth account or even just for regular IRAs where your distributions are taxed at your ordinary income rate. I have slowly increased my PETDX holdings and it now my third largest holding.

    • don...PETDX (yield about 20% and Total Returns this year over 30%) has a great 'long term record on Total Returns' and the reason is because of the fund manager...please go to the 'yahoo profile' and read about the fund manager 'Mihir Worah' (he is a real genius)...that is all you need to know to buy this fund...! Good luck to you...! $tagg...!

    • In order to get a sense of the future for the PETDX holdings you can look at an ETF like RWR which holds the same basket of stocks as an index ETF that PETDX holds. You really want to know how the Dow Jones US Select REIT index and its components are going to do. That is commercial REIT stocks. So the largest holding is SPG, Simon Property Group. Look at SPG and see what analysts are saying about it.

      SPG has a buy rating from the analysts right now and is selling for $153.99 with a mean target from the 17 analysts of $170. Check Morningstar, but their profile on SPG from Nov. 12, 2012 says:

      "Simon's top 10 in line tenants represent roughly 15% of rent, and it is exposed to Florida (14% of U.S. net operating income), Texas (11%), and California (11%). Four tenants--Macy's M, Sears SHLD, J.C. Penney JCP, and Dillard's DDS--occupy more than 80% of Simon's total anchor space. Should online retailers continue to gain share of the consumer wallet, bricks-and-mortar retail locations and the landlords that own them could suffer, especially if they focus on wares that are well-suited to online commerce."

      Personally, I see the equity REIT market continuing to do well and am sticking with PETDX.

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