If you look over the list of portfolio companies of both GrenBriar and MidOcean, its fairly obvious that GreenBriar is positioned to realize a greater number of synergies between EDAC and other portfolio companies. Therefore, GreenBriar should be positioned to pay more for EDAC than MidOcean. I would expect GeenBriar to up their offer and to eventually win the bidding ... Provided no strategic buyer materializes. It'll probably settle out at around $19 ... Would be my bet. Could go to $20 - $21 if a strategic buyer enters the fray and uses their stock to acquire. Just a guess.
Perhaps MidOcean is prepared to use EDAC as it's flagship company to enter aerospace and join the coming boom? They should have deep pockets as they have partnered with an unnamed pension plan investment manager. I would expect GreenBriar to make a counteroffer and MidOcean to one-up that. And below $20, now I wouldn't be surprised for a 3rd bidder to enter the scene. I admit I was surprised someone else stepped forward because of the agreement breakup fees but it didn't take long to find another potential buyer. There has to be a number of other PE firms taking a close look at this.
think something that is good for shareholders to remember is the involvement of a pension fund. Traditionally, if a PE shop has an IRR of 15%, then a pension fund is closer to 10-12%. I.e. MidOcean can afford to pay decently more than Greenbriar because the pension fund's expected return is most likely decently lower.