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Mechel OAO Message Board

  • bostonbigticket bostonbigticket Dec 23, 2008 7:20 PM Flag

    Why this stock is at 4.15

    I think we all know the reasons but here they are just to refresh memories.

    1.Projected decline in world GDP. This has in fact already begun and could possibly continue for several more years, no one really knows how long it will last. My feeling is however this is more than factored in and if recession/depression were the only issue this stock would still be in the teens.

    2. Putin. This is the reason this stock has fallen so far, lets face it he could seize the company anyday and the continued selloff may be an indication that he will.

    All in all I still thing this Mechel is a good buy but it is a speculative buy not a value play. Dont fool yourselfs and dont go in too deep on this one. Personally I wish the call options were more reasonably priced. Five years from now this thing will either be in Russian possesion or at least 20 a share.

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    • 1) Levels of cut backs in steel production by almost all producers should exceed any loss of demand due to lower GDPs

      2) Isn't Putin's track record regarding seizures being exaggerated. I only know of 1 oil company that was taken over. And surely Putin knows that any seizure of MTL or other large industrial company would have a horrible impact upon external investment capital.

 
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