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Lam Research Corporation Message Board

  • storagelh storagelh Nov 25, 2005 2:55 PM Flag

    Lam at 5 year highs

    Amazing how earnings don't follow stock performance. But as long as someone is willing to pay any price for a stock, what do earnings have to do with it anyways ? Ride the momentum but don't be the last one out !!

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    • The CEO won't be the last one out. He is diversifying his portfolio from LAM stock to anything but LAM. Great confidence in his company's prospects. Well he must need the millions now.

    • The retailers reported good numbers (up 22% from last year is what I thought I heard) for Black Friday shopping. Allot of electronics being sold (I guess it didn't get curtailed by the increases to consumwer energy costs). This will be an interesting week for stocks in general. Anyone banking on $42+ by Friday??
      I expect a peak and a pull back to a new trading range at some point but it may not be for another week or two.


    • You never know many people would have bet on this stock going from $27 to $38 in a short period. Everyone underestimates what a high BETA can do to a stock price.
      I thought the climb was done at $35 but I have been pleasantly surprised by Lam in the past.

    • Home sales decline as interest rates rise.

      Anticipation end of Fed raising rates gives
      stocks a boost.

      Oil prices give consumers more purchasing power.

      Electronic gadgets are relatively inexpensive
      gifts. Sales robust.

      Fab utilization above 90%, particularly for
      leading edge geometries.

      I can't figure out why Semis/Lam are going up!


    • Funn how Fri's BS super low volume spike was short lived. Long live the crooked market maker !!!!

    • So long for LRCX around 38.

    • Still see $42+ by Fri? Just asking.

    • Added this morning and covered it all for a small gain. Starting to play my dia short again. Still think there is more short term upside, but not much, as it sells off to Christmas. They have probally suckered in as many funds as possible at this pt. I think we will be back to 10k before spring

    • Not this bear. Market is still way over bought and this is a very small move down and nothing to get excited about. I have posted my position and why I believe the market is headed south.

    • That's the way the street plays, momentum. Valuation is relative in the short term as stocks will swing in either direction regardless of valuation, but in the longer term, valuation does come to play and it will ultimately dictate the eventual stock price.

      The markets are up at 4 year highs and have basically priced in fed easing and a big consumer spending spree in the last month. It has discounted energy prices and has focused on a major global rally. Retaliers index came out with a raised forecast of 6% in consumer spending over the holiday period.

      Now the reality of what is happening. The fed isn't done yet and we will get at least 3 more increase bringing us to 4.75%. Housing is slowing and 06 will reflect a decling market for housing. The lastest check was black Fri wasn't so hot after all and maybe down from a year ago period. Gas has inexplicably come down 23% while crude has moderated down 17% with the gulf platforms still not at 100%. Cold has hit and yes a warm trend is coming coupled by another cold front. Heating costs will stun consumers and rein in spending pre-holiday and retailers will be discounting big time. If you have the cash, wait for the bigger deals nearing xmas. As far as the global economy Germany surprised with a major slowing and they won't be the only ones. China, the big driver is starting to feel the pangs of growth with their 2nd toxic spill into their rivers that will hit Russia. They have cut all corners to foster growth and will pay for it.

      Where does this leave us here. This industry is banking on the rosy scenario posted above, when it doesn't happen, these stocks will travel fast in the other direction as it becomes more evident that the big spending spree has not come to fruition. If the chip company's ramp up there will be a major glut as consumer spending dries up.

      The "analists" and pundits on the blah blah blah channel would have you believe that the markets will rise because it always does is bunk and is luring in the retail investor into a false sense of complacency. Market sentiment is sky high and the vix is dangerously close to a major sell signal. We'll see what unfolds this week. The markets do not go up or down unabated.

      PS, I do look at the macro view and imo it isn't as bright as the general analyst view.

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