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Lam Research Corporation Message Board

  • storagelh storagelh Nov 25, 2005 2:55 PM Flag

    Lam at 5 year highs

    Amazing how earnings don't follow stock performance. But as long as someone is willing to pay any price for a stock, what do earnings have to do with it anyways ? Ride the momentum but don't be the last one out !!

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    • The CEO won't be the last one out. He is diversifying his portfolio from LAM stock to anything but LAM. Great confidence in his company's prospects. Well he must need the millions now.

    • That's the way the street plays, momentum. Valuation is relative in the short term as stocks will swing in either direction regardless of valuation, but in the longer term, valuation does come to play and it will ultimately dictate the eventual stock price.

      The markets are up at 4 year highs and have basically priced in fed easing and a big consumer spending spree in the last month. It has discounted energy prices and has focused on a major global rally. Retaliers index came out with a raised forecast of 6% in consumer spending over the holiday period.

      Now the reality of what is happening. The fed isn't done yet and we will get at least 3 more increase bringing us to 4.75%. Housing is slowing and 06 will reflect a decling market for housing. The lastest check was black Fri wasn't so hot after all and maybe down from a year ago period. Gas has inexplicably come down 23% while crude has moderated down 17% with the gulf platforms still not at 100%. Cold has hit and yes a warm trend is coming coupled by another cold front. Heating costs will stun consumers and rein in spending pre-holiday and retailers will be discounting big time. If you have the cash, wait for the bigger deals nearing xmas. As far as the global economy Germany surprised with a major slowing and they won't be the only ones. China, the big driver is starting to feel the pangs of growth with their 2nd toxic spill into their rivers that will hit Russia. They have cut all corners to foster growth and will pay for it.

      Where does this leave us here. This industry is banking on the rosy scenario posted above, when it doesn't happen, these stocks will travel fast in the other direction as it becomes more evident that the big spending spree has not come to fruition. If the chip company's ramp up there will be a major glut as consumer spending dries up.

      The "analists" and pundits on the blah blah blah channel would have you believe that the markets will rise because it always does is bunk and is luring in the retail investor into a false sense of complacency. Market sentiment is sky high and the vix is dangerously close to a major sell signal. We'll see what unfolds this week. The markets do not go up or down unabated.

      PS, I do look at the macro view and imo it isn't as bright as the general analyst view.

    • The retailers reported good numbers (up 22% from last year is what I thought I heard) for Black Friday shopping. Allot of electronics being sold (I guess it didn't get curtailed by the increases to consumwer energy costs). This will be an interesting week for stocks in general. Anyone banking on $42+ by Friday??
      I expect a peak and a pull back to a new trading range at some point but it may not be for another week or two.


    • The santa rally has already happened. The last few years all hype tv talks about is the santa rally and it hasn't happened in years. Now the week after Christmas is a different story

    • Housing picture is starting to show cracks:


      In the article the NAR stated we have passed the peak and houses for sales are huge and we have now transitioned to a buyers market. Does not bode well for the economy.

      Retail sales is a mixed bag and depends on whom you want to believe. Traffic up, sales down. We'll know more on Thur.

      This market does not want to go down and watch it shrug off the home sales and tepid retail sales. Eight days up?!?!? No fear.

    • Funn how Fri's BS super low volume spike was short lived. Long live the crooked market maker !!!!

    • DOW now green, expect the other indices to follow, as projected in an earlier post, no fear here.

    • I just wanted to get that out of the way before all the bears showed up to predict gloom and doom.

    • Not this bear. Market is still way over bought and this is a very small move down and nothing to get excited about. I have posted my position and why I believe the market is headed south.

    • Still see $42+ by Fri? Just asking.

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