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Lam Research Corporation Message Board

  • storagelh storagelh Feb 9, 2006 10:19 AM Flag

    Amat

    Is on a roll. Its up 10% in less than a week and the analyst are tripping over each other. You know the #'s will be good and even if they aren't amat is still the king of spin. Are they pricing in all the good news to early or is the market ready to take the sector higher. It always goes to high versus fundamentals and its been awhile since its happened. Usually this group will get overpriced by 15 to 20% before reality sets in. Amat generally has real low short interest so its pure buying. Got to love wall street, always getting in at the top

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    • I actually rec stj on another board for the same reason. Would be nice if the stock drops at least another 10% or so for an entry pt. I wouldn't start a position at these levels.

    • Still here and was waiting for the massive rebound at the end of the day that never came to fruition. I see you responded to auri, I have that moron on ignore. Just a basher, came here to heckle and has no position here. Thought he was an ok guy but I saw the real him poke out. Today will be interesting to see how this stock fares after that big move down. Particularly of note was it stayed near the low of the day. Actually I went long AMAT yesterday and bought 10K shares at 19.70. I'll hold till after the report.

      Still very long on MO and will buy STJ on any dips. Great company and growth rate and is a takeover target, JNJ.

      Interesting but pretty grim article from Farrell today:

      http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0C8E7042%2D0E67%2D4CBC%
      2D8CA4%2DBC8CE0C711A6%7D&siteid=yhoo&dist=

    • I guess mario is really not here. Even on a day when lrcx took a licking he is no where to be found.

    • Did you have to come up with yet another ID again? You better watch your language next time, my friend!

      BTW, why are you still posting here? You have no interest (long or short in this issue). LOL.

      Does it still hurt to have paid back all the NVLS gains on this issue?

    • I omitted all of his opinion about stock picking because he sounds like a trader who pick stocks based on charts. He pick others over lrcx because lrcx had a nice run up, nothing else. Valuation and outlook is more important to me as I don't trade lrcx.
      But the prolonged up cycle has two advantages to hold lrcx. One, peak may not be near, and two, the down trend is gradual and thus allow plenty of exits. GO USA GOLD!

    • You omitted this part of the article.

      Why have chip-equipment stocks run up recently?
      In January, the industry was up 13%, and my 5-STAR stocks were up 35%. So it was a big month. As a result, I downgraded Lam Research, which rose dramatically. We interpret the group's move as anticipation of ongoing improving business conditions and a prolonged up cycle

    • I think the low hanging fruits have been picked.
      Pretty much every doom sayer had to acknowledge the upturn (including Zobry) - now the question about margin potential going forward etc.

      The one thing the short community can't figure out is why Lam 2006 is different from Lam 2000 or Lam 1995.

      Probably every short with access to the internet has LRCX on it's radar.
      Perhaps I sell some of my own shares short

    • Rich Returns in Chip Equipment
      S&P's Colin McArdle sees good things ahead for the segment, thanks to new technology and chip-maker upgrades


      Chip-equipment stocks are shining lately. The S&P Semiconductor Equipment index has jumped 16.3% in the last 13 weeks (through Feb. 3), vs. gains of 3.1% for the S&P Information Technology index and 3.6% for the broader S&P 500. "We interpret the group's move as anticipation of ongoing improving business conditions and a prolonged up cycle," says Colin McArdle, who follows chip-equipment stocks for Standard & Poor's Equity Research.
      .....

    • Here is a helpful tool. Look at the chart of lrcx. The chart reflects the cycles also. See how pointy those early tops were and how fast the runups compare to the recent one. That's the difference to this current cycle.

    • It's all relative isn't it? Just because lrcx had gained more doesn't mean it's overvalued. lrcx performs better but it was undervalued to begin. So when you do make a comparison, you shouldn't compare stock performance. In short, he was wrong. Even with the gain lrcx's valuation is just slightly below those of its peers.
      It may be that the top is near, but I doubt it. For one thing, everyone is so sure of it. Second, the cycles are stretched and longer now, it seems. The down turn was so long that the up trend can't be so brief. There is still plenty of time.

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