Lets see, net income $6.3M vs. $10.7M, $0.16 vs. $0.26 per diluted share, outlook for 3Q revenue down 3-4%, net income to decline 12-14%, only modest sales growth, 5% long term, and 12-14% DECLINE in income. Costs up significantly. Two new managment positions announce in week leading into CC. Sure does not look very positive to me, I sold this morning, but I still love my coat.
Hey Investor601 - Wanted to respond to your post. First, you're probably kicking yourself right now, COLM is up about $4/sh. You are right that the comparable numbers are down. Columbia warned of this after Q1 and the stock price took a bath, a real big bath. So, the market had already factored in negative growth for 2005. The problem is, the market overpriced negativity into the value. CEO Tim Boyle, so far...has always undersold and overdelivered. My guess is he gives the market conservative goals and objectives but then really leads a charge with bigger goals for the employees. if there are any employees on this board, perhaps they can comment on this. Nonetheless, the market overcorrected after Q1 and adjusted today when they realized the valuation error. The other point is that companies rarely are on straight line upward projectories. Weather, macro economic factors and other things are always throwing a curve. You have to pick a company with real competitive advantages and latch on for a good long ride, that in the long run will be up, way up. Columbia is one of those companies - they are well run (look at their balance sheet, they are a wholesaler with a 40% gross margin), the have competitive advantages in they execute better - you see this in their numbers, and they are investing for growth. The growth is coming from europe and shoes..columbia is a small player in these markets, but growing rapidly. So far they have not failed and although this is a competitive business, you have to factor in their ability to execute. it is not too late to get back on board. I'm glad you like your coat, which one did you get?
Hey mydasdutch, perhaps a couple of regrets, the positive reaction to the results was certainly a surprise. I sold expecting no significant move, and a significant risk of another sharp downward slide. The two senior management appointments leading into the CC was what pushed me over the edge.
Still, I have no regrets (well, perhaps a couple), but COLM is not healthy, and I have been investing much more conservatively lately. I still cannot feel good mid- to long-term, and the reasons I bought have changed. I am doing very well with COO and DHI, but will also turn on them if the fundamental story starts to change. There are just too many problems here, poor growth, increasing costs, inventory, a terrible TV advertising campaign...
I used to respect Columbia's brand for quality at a price, now I see beach towels at Kohls branded with the "Columbia" logo.
There are just too many other companies out there... it was, and still is, time to move on.
It always makes sense to be overly conservative when you have a warchest for share repo's (under promise, stock goes down, buy it back, and over deliver) Those shares COLM bought back in the mid 40's are looking pretty good right now.