Here was my blue sky assessment posted on the old board. Oh, and one other thing that made me pad my holdings: Frank Reynolds was paralyzed for several years and I read that his spine is degenerating now. If he doesn't get the scaffold to market he faces paralysis again. I don't think you can find a more motivated CEO!
NVIV is a speculative play, with an A+ team, that has very recent experience with the FDA process, and significant cash in the bank.
Stock price should double on news of FDA trial, beyond that who knows? They do have a team that can get this product to market quickly if the trial is positive. If trial is not positive, or delayed, share price will drop (good time to buy more shares). It is that simple. The managers NVIV just hired are experienced at pushing products through the FDA, plus they also know what not to do (Geron), and in the start-up world that is half the game!
1. They have a revolutionary product, in a large un-met market, with sensational PR potential.
2. Product is ready to manufacture, at very high margins. And it is made from an FDA approved material.
3. They are using a Humanitarian Device Exemption, which means less time to market, and a faster pathway to revenue; great for investors.
4.. Pre clinical trials results are consistent, and appear very repeatable in humans. Plus NVIV designed the trial, looks like a good chance of great trail results, and another big jump in pps, potentially this year. So, pps could do 3x-4x this year.
5. NVIV has significant cash in the bank ($18 million), and access to $13 million more with warrants that are already issued. They have operated under-budget consistently, they will be in business for a long time and won't be distracted from their goals by fundraising, or any other cash issues. In essence, they have an A+ team with no worries except getting their scaffold device to market. This is a dream come true for speculative investors! And a rare and difficult thing for managers to acheive. It shows you how talented NVIV's managers are, A+.
6. Managers just set-up a stock option plan at $2.68. This means that managers have the option, in the future, to purchase stock at $2.68. You would not buy a stock option at $2.68 until the pps was well above that. This indicates that insiders see significant upside from today's pps. So, as a speculative play, we are in a great position with very little downside, until the FDA process begins to unfold.
7. Blue sky upside on NVIV is over 100X return from today's price because the product is very high margin, to-market rapidly, and scaled rapidly with a very small sales-force. Plus the PR potential is a big multipier.
I strongly believe pps will more then double in the short term, based on news of the FDA trails alone. Beyond that, it is up to how the product performs inside a human! If it does well, we could see pps over $200. If it does poorly, we could see pps under $1. Simple
Has anybody done the math... approximate is ok. With similar amount of authorized shares, where does the stock price go with these revenue levels:
10 Billion - often cited as the acute market, which could be FULLY IN PLACE by 2015, right?
Per the "Blue Sky' assessment of 100X today's share price, what approximate level of revenues would that be associated with. Obviously shares would be diluted more by then as well.
Let's assume a price to earnings ratio of 15/1
80% profit margin
$50 million gross gives $40 million profit
P=(15)x(50,000,000)= $750,000,000 Market Cap
$750,000,000/64,000,0000 Outstanding shares = $11.70/share
$500 Million gross = $117/Share
$10 Billion gross = $2340/Share
Numbers get to be astounding pretty fast.
However may be dilution to raise cash and sharing revenue through partnering.
Frank Reynolds is not in a hurry to sell company but with 24% of the company shares at some point it sounds like he probably would and that would cap the upside potential for us retail share holders.
Anything close to $100/share and I retire.
I think there may have been a thread on the previous board that put some numbers out. Maybe the "Zacks" thread. There's lots of variables though, such as dilution.
However, over $100/share is definitely do-able once these products are out changing people's lives.
I hate to burst bubbles, but this thing has dropped from 2.50 in the last week. That's a 22% drop!! I'm in heavy here, in fact just picked some more up at 2.07. Any comments feel free.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Put, I like your numbers but it is as you say, "blue sky." I know NVIV has lots of potential, but what do you think the "pale blue sky" would be if, say they only got 10 to 20% of the $10 billion SCI industry and 20% of the $22 billion peripheral nerve market via hydrogel? We're still probably looking at 5 years from now. Under these pale blue parameters, where do you think the share price could get to?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I am in the same boat, 30k shares at $2.
Its a pretty simple equation for me. HUD/trial approval sends it over $7, bad new sends it to $1. I think the probability of it going to $7 is higher than it going to $1 and I am willing to risk loosing $35k. Simple as that.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The thing about NVIV is that you never know when the news hits. Its ok to trade around your core, but like PEM said on the other board, I would not want to sell any shares on a Friday. Anyway, they usually release their news in the morning before the market, but I have occasionally seen after market pm news.
FDA approval I assume is random and can be released any hour of day. IMO, that will initiate at least a 50% increase in share price, which could then head higher still.
Then when +++++ news comes from the clinicals, $5-$7.
Is $5-$7 pps after a +++ human clinical trial result a "low" estimate. There are several other milestones that could drive the stock to this level first--NASDAQ listing/announcement of approval of the clinical trials/opening of the manufacturing facility/possible take over bid by large pharmaceutical--can't believe that +++ human trial would only raise pps to this level