envy, at what point do you think the masses will flock to NVIV?
Will it be at the point positive results are announced on the 1st scaffolding patient? Do you think the serial nature of the trial will stifle pps acceleration or will positive initial results overcome that? Are you confident the rest of the pipeline (especially Hydrogel) will be failrly close to the last reported status? Which means we should see a Hydrogel submittal very soon???
The catalysts I am waiting for are up-listing and the beginning of the trials; hopefully, in that order. That is my thesis for investing in this stock.
Currently, the stock is owned primarily by retail investors. Consequently, the share price is very volatile. It will calm down when institutional investors buy. The demand created by up-listing will be huge in my opinion.
It up-listing plays out prior to the first patient, I see the scenario like this:
1. Announcement of intention to up-list by new management. $2
2. Announcement of up-listing day. $4.
3. Up-listing day. $7 to $8.
4. Announcement of intention to treat. $8
5. Announcement of first patent enrolled. $10.
That is as far as my thesis takes me. By then "the masses" should be here. That is why I own this stock. From the recent lows, that is a ten bagger. Unfortunately, I am averaged in higher than that.
I will take profits after up-listing and again after the first patient is enrolled. That is when I will evaluate the success of my investment.
All of these inflection points are not based on anything other than the natural course of events we should expect. The company will need and want to up-list, The company will meet the qualitative criteria. The FDA has already approved the pilot study. Hospitals and surgeons are already identified. Even rehab in Atlanta has been established.
At that point, the investment thesis changes considerably. Everything is baked in except performance, which I believe will be good, but am reticent to over play. I will be willing to discuss my next move at that point.
I know there is a much longer window before others evaluate the success of their investment. In that vein, I, too, believe Hydrogel will be a big money maker; however, I am not willing to commit that far out. I may leave some money on the table because of Hydrogel, but it is only a small part of my current rationale (vis. part of the great story).
My only question with this is that with current share price, do they still qualify for criteria to uplist? I've read a bunch of sources that said $4 for 30 days for NASDAQ, or $2 or $3 for NYSE. Obv we're not there right now. What catalyst would take it back to uplisting price? I'm thinking your rationale might be backwards, that PPS will rise in anticipation of trials which will get price back to uplisting, then either uplisting will be announced right before or right after trials commence Q1 2014. JMO.