Credit Suisse not too enthusiastic, target price of $9.50, I guess the new entry point would have to be $7.5 -8.0 we have AMAT reporting soon and they are going to be downgrading their estimates for chip manuf. equip, they are brks biggest customers. AMAT has the solar business which will be announcing new contracts, so amat is a scizo co. or they would be a buy. Once again I have to piss and moan about trying to buy this stock while the company itself is bidding against me, shares outstanding is down %7.50. When is the allocation going to run out that I would love to know. Are we all going to be happy when the cash is gone and we have 15% less stock and no earnings? Much better to use the cash for a buyout of MKSI during the bottom, hey but noone listens to me. Are those assholes in CO happy? I guess it takes more than an MBA to figure out you dont buy this stuff before it troughs - duh! and theyve been buying all the way down - dickheads! You want the list of times Ive bought too early maybe trading experience is what its all about. We have another poor quarter or two before this washes out and we have better comparisons. Moochie
I read the Credit Suisse report, hmmmmm. Their 12-month price target is based on 1.5 x Tangible Book Value, with 1.5 x chosen because it was the average of the TROUGH valuation in the '98 and '05 semiconductor cycle slowdowns.
Huh? To me chosing a trough valuation equivalent to the worst times in the past is an estimate of the cyclical low price, not an estimate of where we will be in 12 months, after the cycle has turned. As in "$9.50 is as low as it will go".
BRKS, and HELX before them, has always been leveraged to make a ton of money when the cycle is strong and lose a little when the cycle is weak. That's just the way it is. BRKS is not a stock to hold forever. It is a stock to buy when the cycle is weak and sell when it is strong (now if only the company knew that).
In other news, NVLS is up 7% today on AMAT's statements that the end of the downturn is in sight.
If we are below $10.00 while they are buying 1.5 mill shares a month where is the stock price without that buying? I think it drifts even lower which is why I was figuring out when this thing expires and the timing with better forecasts ahead. I think it will take another 6 months before we start getting better news. So the buying stops just as the news may get better.
As of March 31 7.5 mill shares had been purchased at approx $12.25 a share it started Nov 9th so its about 1.5 mill a month. The cost was 90 mill. are the shareholders happy that this money is being wasted like this? Shouldnt the company get all the bad news out before they start buying the stock? If that isnt grounds for a lawsuit I dont know what is. The officers of the company owe it to ALL the shareholders to get at least close to the best deal possible for what is money owned by the shareholders not just do the bidding of one stockholder. The dickhead in CO is responsible for this. Anyway my point is we have at least 5 months more of this, my guess is most of the buying will be on the down before the stock price bottoms out Mooch.