this stock is posed for steep retreat tomorrow..should open below $36 if the sellers take the time to go through the release..saw this one coming, but never had the balls to short it..CEO plainly spells out in the Q2 release that earnings would be well short if the semi industry saw a slowdown..we should all be kicking ourselves for not shorting the hell out of this name!
Believe it or not I actually agree with your points. If you take a close look at my arguments you will note that none are specifically directed at BRKS. I just think BRKS, like almost all chip tech, is seriously overpriced here. I like posting on the BRKS board because the quality of the posters is higher than on many of the other stocks I am shorting.
result out today and confirm your point about BRKS's competitive edge. ASYT calls themselves THE leader in the SMIF business, but BRKS, in the CC, say they have over 50% of new orders. The relative revenue performance (ASYT down 45%) suggest BRKS is the leader now.
The explanation from the CC was that the focus of SMIF orders has shifted from Taiwan (where ASYT is strong) to Japan and Europe (where BRKS is entrenched). Also, their Infab acquisition brought them so9me excellent technology.
All the arguments you are making about chip recovery are well and good. They are excellent reasons for not buying ASYT or PRIA or even AMAT.
But BRKS is different and here's why:
1) If you listen to the con-call,they are gaining marker share at a very impressive rate.
2) Despit excess capacity right now, the fabs WILL HAVE TO upgrade to 300mm eventually in order to leverage the economies of scale.
3) A tight market for chips, meaning low margins, is a great selling atmosphere for BRKS factory software products which improve efficiencies of existing and new fabs.
4) The company has loads of cash to buy good but cash-strapped smaller companies to complete its suite of products.
Finally, BRKS is very lucky in its compition. ASYT and PRIA are stuck in the mud. They do not have the resources to compete with the agressive BRKS.
With all the new acquisitions, BRKS will be eating the competition's lunch.
That's why I said around Aug 1 - that should be just after the insider blackout period. Certainly if they were allowed to dump shares May 1 without giving a hint about the coming quarter (except for an unpublicized layoff the day before), they would be allowed to sell Aug 1 after giving a full-out warning. I think they will hold their options this time if things are really looking up for after the current quarter.
Wow - its plummeting like a rock. Now 40, now 35, now 30. It will be in the 20's in no time.
or actually not much change in the morning
other than following the pack. Actually up slightly on the news.
People should try to be less extremist, and look at the writing on the walls. Be calm,
and do your homework.
Agree on sell off. At least they didn't try to sugarcoat it. I may actually go long when I cover my short later this year. I kind of liked that rather straightforward earnings report.
In the meantime this stock has a LONG ways to fall.
You people are complete morons. If you were going to sell you should have done so at 50+. Everyone and their brother with a high school education knew that this next quarter is going to inhale with great velocity. No surprise. With the way they are picking up 300mm orders and other acquistions, I'm not worried. I'll bet they break even.
You people need to think about what's going to happen when this slump turns around. BRKS is going to completely dominate the market.
My guess is not much change in the morning
other than following the pack. If anything, it might go up. Rationale ?
Comparisons to closest competitors - answer to
question of where the market share is going.
Look at 90-day estimates of EPS for June Qtr.
Pria estimates went from -0.13 to -0.37 and
they delivered -0.56. Dissappointment. Asyst
went from 0.12 to -0.26 and will deliver tomorrow ???. Brooks went from 0.24 to 0.21 and delivered 0.22.
They will like Brooks because mgmt delivers what they say they will. Profits in the middle of this downturn. They will accept breakeven or 10 cents down because competition is doing much worse.
Could be wrong.