Do you have any idea how many times I've read "the cyclical nature of memory prices is a thing of the past"? Let's just say more than a few. We're all big boys or girls here and we're all perfectly capable of making our own investment decisions. It would be really cool though, if we could keep the conversation to ideas and nix the personal attacks, criticisms and ridicule. JMHO
You've heard about the end of the cycle more than a few times, meaning that you fully understand and agree? Some don't realize that the playing field has shrunk from 40-50 to 3 (or 4 in flash), and that capex has grown considerably due to diminishing returns as we approach the limits of Moore's law. We'll see 3D NAND in 2015 and 18" wafers in 2017, which means there's really less motivation to expand in 2013. The only new fab being built (in Xi'an, China...a $7 billion venture), already not expected to have any real effect in 2014, is rumored to have been delayed because Samsung has more motive to choke off supply than provide it now that they have already won the memory war and now are intent on the mobile war.
I'm also more interested in the facts than personal attacks. The facts are that there's no new capacity being built, and that if there was, it would take multiple years to materialize. Fabs don't appear overnight, and there are now very few companies with the resources to build them. Demand is outgrowing supply. We will see $3 - $4 EPS for Micron in the next 12 months.
JW- great analysis...and the reason that I am purchasing the shares of my in the money options as they become due....great risk/reward play where the major downside is another Great Recession and the upside is huge...