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Micron Technology Inc. Message Board

  • *** positive comments emerged from a Jefferies investor day in Chicago.
    Jefferies has a Buy rating on the stock. Raymond James’s Hans Mosesmann, (july 2013) who reiterates a Strong Buy rating and raises his price target to $17 from $12, writing that “the 109% surge in shares this year (vs. the SOX up 22%) is only the beginning.”
    Positive notes from including analysts who include Citigroup‘s Glen Yeung, Wedbush‘s Betsy Van Hees, and Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Pitzer.
    Mosesmann -he actually thinks Micron may deliver upside, perhaps reporting $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion, We believe the upside is predominantly in PC DRAM pricing, where spot pricing is up 30-50% q/q in the May quarter depending on the form factor. Micron’s acquisition of bankruptcy memory maker Elpida Memory, which could dramatically boost earnings for Micron

    Mark Durcan, CEO- I’m not going to steal Ron’s thunder but I’ll tell you right now that the economics are very compelling. (Elpida/MU) Micron saying this is a different company.

    The product portfolio itself is very complementary and synergistic, gives us a huge leg-up in the mobile market with their mobile DRAM portfolio but also a lot of strength in graphics.
    We’ve got a lot of great DRAM technology; we’ve been working on a joint development basis with them(Elpida) for over nine months now in the 25-nanometer node. We’re learning from each other and moving quickly. . One of the big strength of Elpida’s technology especially in the mobile area is their packaging technology. It’s definitely a synergy

    We now have the scale that our customers have wanted us to have for a long time. So, the customers out there are rooting for Micron. We’re the world’s only global memory company with smart folks interacting with customers around the world, really understanding their applications
    There's been a lot of growth in the memory industry, there's been a lot of fantastic innovation from a technology perspective that’s driven significant productivity increases in terms of transistors and bits per square into silicon over the last couple of decades
    Some money spending go on in 2014 in order to facilitate a 3D NAND transition -new Greenfield capacity in NAND Flash at IM Flash Technologies in Utah and IM Flash Singapore.
    ------DEMAND story- on the NAND side, it’s actually interesting. On the higher density NAND side, it’s pretty tight and that’s going into the client SSDs and non-SSDs, we’re seeing some softening on the lower density products that go into the cars and USB stuff and even some of the feature phone business. But again overall in NAND, we’re very pleased with where it is today and it continue to be pretty tight for us given that a lot of our capacities in the better segment tied into this segment. If you look into what’s in your car entertainment system, what is the back of your television, what’s in your tablets, what’s moving it ultrathin, it’s architecturally all the same. And what that means is it this little smartphone opportunity about 1 billion units is really just the tip of the sphere on what mobile computing is,
    So, there is a whole bunch of forces driving this computer and what it’s capable of doing as well as the amount of memory in it.
    ALL these the personal electronics whether it’s going to be a watch or glasses or a heart monitor or a medical monitor while those all have a relatively small amount of memory all of those use the phone as the hub, So, the cloud is being the center of the universe what it is if the center of your universe, and the cool part of that is as you put more memory on that it also forces more memory in the cloud which where is where Micron has got a huge opportunity.
    If you just look at the connectivity in video. So, LTE drives more memory. Combination initially was because it’s a higher performance device, in the end it’s because it allows you again to do a lot more processing on images and video.
    we put Micron and Elpida together and as you’ve heard earlier the rate of progression in technology is slowing, it’s all about having all the right pieces, NAND, NOR, DRAM, controllers, firmware, packaging and with the combined companies we got all those pieces to go often create interesting solutions, energy efficient, high performance solutions for all of these mobile devices.
    Moving down to ultrathin PC and tablets. This is a changing market frankly, So, in the space we had DDR3 coming into play, now even mobile technology such as LPDDR3, and really what we are finding with Elpida is just a perfect match both with 25 nanometer technology in production at Hiroshima and Rexchip as well as LPDDR3 capability for always on, always connected ultrathin,
    Over on the graphics and consumers side, this is a big win for us with Elpida. Elpida has been a long time player in the graphics markets something called GDDR memory, graphics DDR, and currently they are in production with something called GDDR5. This is in production as we speak in Hiroshima. This will be used for a number of upper-end game consoles as well as advanced computer computing graphics.
    *** just an update on Hybrid Memory Cube.- this is working out better than we ever could have planned. It’s gained the high ground and it has given a number of server and networking companies in architecture that is ready to use in these upper end systems.

    The opportunity for us is to continue to play out this differentiation and multi-segment approach.

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    • Its about what we don't know that is going to make us rich. They touched on it at the conference- There's been a lot of growth in the memory industry, there's been a lot of fantastic innovation from a technology perspective that’s driven significant productivity increases in terms of transistors and bits per square into silicon over the last couple of decades. WE don't know the what the next APP will do or the storage and streaming capabilities. BIDU is streaming TV . Their down loads are 10 times faster then ours. This is our future and the memory in the devices and in the cloud will only escalate

    • Just an FYI. A DRAM Exchange email I received:

      TrendForce: 2H’August NAND Flash Contract Prices Drops 5-10%, End-Demand May be Weaker than Expected

      According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the 2H’August NAND Flash contract prices have slid by approximately 5-10% due to the weaker than expected OEM demand and the lowered replenishment momentum resulting from the NAND Flash customers’ increased inventory.

      Looking at the supply side, even though Samsung’s Xi’An plant will not be ready to officially begin production until Q1 of next year, the NAND Flash productions of both SK Hynix and Micron will be expected to commence throughout 4Q13 (Toshiba, in the meantime, has already managed to recover its entire production capacity during 3Q13). At present, it is projected that the Q4 NAND Flash capacity will grow by approximately 10% and that the NAND Flash manufacturers will continue to restrict their supplies as a means to control price. Even now, various manufacturers in the industry are still pressured by the prospects of increased inventories.

      Looking over to the demand side, due in large part to the continuous struggles faced by the notebook market, TrendForce predicts that the 2013 NB shipments will decrease by an estimated 10% compared to the same period a year ago. With the sales performance of UItrabooks as well as internally built SSDs already noticeably affected, an increasing number of PC OEMs are beginning to see a notable increase in their inventories, and are making downward revisions to their shipments. Even with the new smartphone and tablet products expected to launch during September, the eMMC capacity growth is still expected to be limited (if not weakened). This is mostly due to the conservative buyer attitude and the rise of low-cost smartphones and tablets. Taking into account the aforementioned developments and the not as expected 2H13 demand, TrendForce believes it is likely that the September prices will continue to drop

 
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