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Micron Technology, Inc. Message Board

  • indianareception indianareception Oct 12, 2013 12:28 AM Flag

    I'm down 4K from 18.45 and concerned for what to do and why

    It's got to go back up, right? I mean, it's not going to go back to 14 is it? At least I did not get those call options I was thinking about. I know I should hold MU even if it drops like a rock to 12 on a prolonged selloff all next week because earnings will come. But what if the cause of the drop is lack of a catalyst. All the catalysts are played out besides more earnings numbers. That's not flashy like an Elpida acquisition or making something that may end up in an AAPL product. What new will happen that will be a future catalyst? Give me some hope, please, as I'm having some trouble sleeping tonight over my decision to get that extra 1000 shares at the top yesterday expecting today we'd be at 20, not 16. I am proud of myself for standing long and strong the whole day today, no matter how low it got because I though the Street misunderstood the numbers as a clear miss when it was not at all that way. I thought the stock would rebound on reinterpretation of the beat. But it didn't. Someone tell me the catalysts besides pro forma and earnings which every company has. Thanks.

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    • Hold on and if you have some powder watch the next two days then if it does go lower nibble in at lower prices establish a lower cost average and be patient. If it does rally back into the $17's you may get out with a lesser loss or even a small profit in a week or so. Of course DC can make the market go up or down big so watch the news before buying at lower levels or hope for a slight bump over $17 and take a lesser loss on the original shares. I do not think it gets near $12 but if the market slumps you may see $15's. Some of my strategies are to never buy any stock at 52 week highs despite what the talking heads on TV say and do not hold into earnings. These days if you disappoint you get a major haircut. I 've been posting on this board that I will not be in MU in any direction into the report I like for the dust to settle. I made small MU trades on last Friday and this past Monday and made decent money but I did get out like I had planned. I missed a lot of volatility on Tues & Wed but I did not lose anything. Earnings in general are starting to slow so if you have big market rallies you have to sell into them. That's what I did the last two days. Sitting on a lot of cash right now and I will wait for DC to F up things real soon. Good Luck with your trade and sorry for the long post.

    • Sell off Today

      Had nothing to do with MU's earnings report. This sell off is options related. In other words this was an effort of call and put option sellers to make as many call and put options worthless. This is how big money manipulates and inflicts the greatest pain / loss on option buyers. After next Friday ( options expiration) MU will move back up.

      • 2 Replies to xquestor
      • I do agree with you that big option bets have been moving many stocks that I follow causing strange temporary moves but I disagree with you about MU's report. The market looked past Elpida and focused more on MU's numbers figuring I believe that it is too soon to extrapolate what Elpida may do going forward. The revenue was a slight beat but despite all the spinning on this board the EPS was a miss. Analysts and bulls on this board I think you would agree were expecting a big beat and it did not arrive thus the big hit despite the Nazdaq up 31 points. Imagine where the shares would have closed if it closed down 31 points. This was not a stunning report by no means so do not let optimism overshadow reality. I started nibbling under $17 and got some near the lows but I do expect a bit more downside over the next couple of days then it will bottom.

      • X, agree. This pullback was so much more a function of the option activity and all of the pending resolutions that need to work their way through the system, than a reflection of Microns business outlook. MM's are utilizing their muscle to take advantage of the situation. I expect the stock to flounder in the $15-17 range for a couple months before taking it's next step up.

    • THIS PAPER IS NOT WORTH $4...........DUMP AND GO SHORT
      Total Cash (mrq): 2.55B
      Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 2.46
      Total Debt (mrq): 3.62B

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Fear monger basher- so transparent!!

    • BUT, the biggest concern is Hynix. My belief from all I have read is that the amount of damage and the time to repair it is minimal. Here we go again with what the d-mn stupid analysts have said, about "six months" and all this other garbage. All I can say is hope these dummies are right for once, or many of us can kiss huge amounts of money goodbye. And this hyping pumping nonsense influenced traders on this board - these trash of the earth (just click on my name so I can expose them all to you in their naked vileness), Hold them responsible for their devious, questionable & relentlesss pumping of this stock. This has turned into the perfect storm,. A nightmare of unprecedented proportion. And that's not an exaggeration.

    • Not even the experts can fully understand and agree upon the earnings report and cc. Most, however agree that more light will be shed in the next two weeks. MU is a great company and has a lot of things going for it at the present time. I don't think anyone even knows for sure when Hynix will be up and operational, so until that happens, chip prices will more than likely still be high. Trimming their workforce will definitely help the bottom line. Bottom line, there is more good happening right now than there is bad.

      It wasn't too long ago after MU announced it was going to acquire Elpida that people were talking about the possibility of $3.50 eps. So, after recent earnings, let's just suppose we get $2.50 eps for 2014 with a 10 p/e that's $25 per share. I honestly believe that to be an underestimate. I also wouldn't be surprised in the not so distant future we hear about dividends being reinstated and/or increase in share buybacks.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • sillystabbin@gmail.com sillystabbin Oct 12, 2013 2:50 AM Flag

      You've got to relax and keep a level head. I'm down too, but they're now profitable, and the most recent earnings are for the period ending Aug 29, prior to the fire at the competition. Read this piece from Barron's today (url below) and rest easy. If anything, pick up some more shares and average down.

      Unless you absolutely need the money I say hold out, if you're worried about what a stock does in a single week you're gambling not investing. The article:

      http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/10/11/micron-to-benefit-from-dram-nand-pricing-demand-analysts/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

    • suckersgetcornholedandlikeit suckersgetcornholedandlikeit Oct 12, 2013 1:06 AM Flag

      The worst lubeless cornream for you is the falling knife of MU all the way to 12. I hope you enjoy your heavy, heavy losses. You'll need a shrink for your sleep disorder and a proctologist for the John Redcorn.

    • If you do not need the money for now, sit on it for a few weeks. It has to come around with all the higher price targets, forward p/e ratio and contribution from Elpida. This is a 22 dollar stock trading in the 16 plus range now. Giving money away if you sell.

 
MU
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