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Micron Technology Inc. Message Board

  • kg2931 kg2931 Dec 27, 2013 3:11 PM Flag

    Good SA Russ Fischer article on MU this morning

    I'm always suspicious of SA, Motley Fool in the like but this mornings SA article by a Russ Fischer I found encouraging for us MU longs. Read the following excerpt and then reply back telling us if you think his prediction is correct on the stock likely to "gap up" towards earnings. "even as high as $30 on January 8"????? kg

    "With analyst estimates ranging form $.18 to $.72, there is no consensus, just an average, so options might be the most prudent trade in this case. A quick in and out with stock also gets the job done. The thesis here being that Micron earnings will be a blowout when reported on January 7, in which case the stock is likely to gap up toward even as high as $30 on January 8 and you will have a couple of weeks to see what happens. I intend to sell at least 50% the day after earnings regardless. If the earnings are so-so, the stock will probably not react negatively."

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    • Why would the stock not react negatively to so-so earnings? This stock has climbed so much, even with its recent two dollar loss, that the expectations are very high. He is being way to cavalier about this.

    • I would say the article was not very welcoming when comparing this article with all previous ones because he did not mention the stock will go over 30. In his previous article he talked about how the great this stock is. He did mention he sold his shares, which is not good news. how could say he sold his holding then states that after the day of earning he will sell half of what he holds; it does not make sense to me. He probably should have stated that he sold sold a portion of his holdings. Anyway; overall, it was a negative article. The only good part said was that he will have call opyion, meqaning he has still potive attitude this stock. However, compare to all his previous, this one is negative. My feeling is that this stock will go 30; this is just feeling. Any suggestion is welcomed.

    • I think a pop to 30 is so unlikely thats almost a 50% jump in one day if MU's stays at its current price. Maybe a 10% pop but it depends on what they say on the cc and how clear they are. Mu has always dropped after earnings i don't know how different it will be this time around

    • Thanks all for good replies - entertaining discussion of MU's SP strength between now and Earnings Jan 8th!

      Myself I am predicting some run up to earnings day just because there will be new 2014 investors wanting in and old 2013 share holders not wanting to sell the farm before earnings and because most investors have an idea that earnings are going to be good rather than bad.

      Of course after earnings, regardless of good or bad, there will no doubt be the usual post earnings sell off. But then as MU stabilizes, finds a new support level, I predict this to be another momentum stock starting a week or two after earnings. Good luck to all.

      kg2931 (6K shrs MU Long @ $22.56 Avg CB ($135,360) held since 12/10/2013)

    • I don't see a pop to 30 at all from here. Maybe to 24 from 22 (if we can even get to there and stay there a day or 2), but there's probably going to be a lot of selling all next week, so we might not even get to 22 and hold it. Regardless of what they present, MU might get whacked anyway just for the way they present.

    • I have no prediction on what will happen at earnings announcement...could go either way. Longer term, I'm expecting at least 30 in 6 mos, maybe much higher. I consider MU a core investment to be added to on dips. This little slowdown doesn't even qualify as a dip. Concentrate on the fundamentals instead of penny fluctuations and rumors. Good luck to you kg, and to all.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • A gap up on favorable earnings...possibly from (right now) ~$21.50 to THIRTY?!? There's not a chance in hell of that kind of jump happening in MU. Maybe a buck. Maybe a buck 50? But THIRTY? ~$9 from here? Well....isn't Pot on the cusp of being legal? Sounds like he be experimentin' with the stuff....or something to that effect.

      And I have to look askance at his "even if earnings are so so the stock will probably not react negatively." Eh? Earnings come in so so and I can about guarantee a thud heard 'round the world. I jest on this, but my 5yrs worth of observing MU tends to make me think that the bid will definitely take a hit if all expectations aren't at least met. Hell it gets hit when expecations ARE met halft the time. Just an observation. I could be wrong. Just my 2pennies worth....

      Oh....bid is at .50.

      • 2 Replies to highlowsel
      • highlowsel,long time no see.I thought R.Fischers article was a positive one.He came right out and said how he is playing it into earnings
        On another note,I had a position in GALE---I been trading it for 2 months.Yesterday I had a limit order to sell at 4.07---I got a partial fill
        This am I put a market order in &sold shares at 4.11
        The stock goes higher so I put a limit order in for 4.23---and I get taken out---I am happy
        Look what the stock did till closing!!!!!!!!!!!!!
        This stock MAY be a 10 bagger
        Check it out,Seeking Alpha and wherever you can and tell me what You think.
        I am all sold out after today,but I will be trading it again.
        I may buy some and just hold a core position and trade around it
        Regards,

      • Agree. I think the only way this goes up is if numbers come in really really good AND they have positive comments about the future. Either of those missing, this tanks. That is how MU goes. Also have to think that there will be some selling after the new year but prior to earnings by those looking to put gains on next year taxes. I say this because that is how I am thinking and I suspect there are others. Whenever there is some selling from main street, there is always Lucy to pile it on and exagerate the downward spiral. Other delima is the thinking I saw from Cramer's gal a week or so ago saying she is concerned about chip prices going down. Anyone who knows about this stuff, knows that in time- chip prices always go down. It is the race to reduce production cost faster than that decline. MU has been on the short end of that for long periods of time. These people will panic when Mu says that the expectation is that chip prices will be going down over time. Other concern is simply sell the news. Many have been waiting for this earnings report for the bounce to take profits and get out. they will sell and bring the price down as well. MU has the uncanny ability to pull a handfull of mud out of the magicians hat. MU rabbits are few and far between. I like Mu but have experienced the mud over and over. Hopefully this time is really different.

 
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