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Micron Technology, Inc. Message Board

  • baru1000 baru1000 Oct 7, 1999 3:01 PM Flag

    Greed is an awful thing, I've been

    saying it all along. This is not a stock that you
    invest in. Anyone stupid enough to believe that MU would
    actually hit those absurd price targets deserves to loose
    his shirt. Also don't hold your breath for this thign
    to stay at 70. I would not be surprised to see a 60
    or lower close next Friday. Congrats. to all those
    on this board who understand this stock (ie.
    Dumbunny) and are willing to go the opposite way if so
    presecribed. Everyone else who is long now, it is still not to
    late to sell, you can at least walk out with somthing
    or minimize losses.

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    • Yes your are right. Two mediums w/ regular crust. Mu down another $2 today!

    • I agree with some of what you have said. However,
      here is the picture I see:

      1. The myths about
      reduced sales levels from Q4 to Q1 were nixed by Micron's
      own research of the past 4 years which prove that Q1
      UNIT ships typically are not reduced from Q4 UNIT
      ships. Since it could be reasonably expected that units
      ships will remain approximately the same or increase,
      and since more 128 Megabit products should be
      produced, bits shipped in Q1 should be higher than

      2. AVERAGE contract ASP will be higher in Q1 than Q4
      for both contract and spot. There should be an
      average decline in ASP going forward in Q2, but not a
      dramatic drop. The increase in demand is much bigger than
      back to school or Christmas 'bumps'.

      3. Cost
      per unit will be lower than Q4 as MU ramps .18 and as
      more volume from ramping their new fabs drives cost

      4. The decline in contract ASP will not exceed the
      decline in cost per unit. Spot doesn't matter for MU as
      most of their stuff is sold on contract.

      5. Net
      income should, therefore, be much, much higher in Q1 and
      should remain stable from there forward as the cost and
      selling price are reduced at approximately the same

      I agree this quarter undoubtedly will be Micron's
      most profitable in a long time, and will not only
      offset 1999 losses, but could offset the majority of
      1998 losses.

      While the stock price does seem to
      follow spot prices, long term stock trends follow more
      closely with contract prices and overall industry

      MU long is a reasonable choice.

    • discountbrokersarebucketeers discountbrokersarebucketeers Oct 7, 1999 10:46 PM Flag

      Do not believe what you hear, read, or see.
      Interpret the price action for yourself, and bear in mind
      that there are entities that want you to 'take stock'
      at the highest possible prices. You do not even have
      to be watching the TV, even if you just have it on,
      the message will get delivered through your ears.
      Pretty insidious. What a gig.

      You watch what
      happens to a few of these things that get 'white -hot
      hyped'. Better expect reversals real soon thereafter, and
      not trust it to providence.

    • <EOM>

    • As there are many ways to skin cat, so the trade
      can be very
      profitable if MU sells lower,say to

      As- Cost- (- $2.400 Mil) (270M/shs) avg $8.88/sh for

      Less- + 1,317 Mil " avg $4.88/sh(if price
      in Oct/Nov -est-i.e,below 70
      option decreases
      in value-so
      sell what u bought-to recoup-

      EST.(but must have finger on
      the trigger)
      Net cost
      (-1,083 Mil)

      Add +2,600 Mil -Sale 75 calls

      Now- + $1,517 Mil Net Profit. Wala!(140% Return
      on cost)

    • what a revelation

    • discountbrokersarebucketeers discountbrokersarebucketeers Oct 7, 1999 10:28 PM Flag

      Maria's 'the midday kill'

    • discountbrokersarebucketeers discountbrokersarebucketeers Oct 7, 1999 10:26 PM Flag

      She is there to help her man entrap buyers when
      she hypes things,
      so they (specialists) can UNLOAD
      on you, along with a little positive soothsaying
      from the upgrade gravy train analysts. Business as
      usual. One has to wonder if they (CNBC) sell her

      'There is stock to buy IN SIZE'. OOH,
      OOH, OOH. 'There is a HUUUGE crowd around the post of

      She-Wolf. Do not believe what you hear, they are attacking
      you through your auditory canal.

    • You said "Koreans/Japanese haven't invested in
      generation equipment". Koreans - esp. Samsung
      definitely have, are at .18um in volume now.
      is a bit behind. Samsung is also ramping new fab
      for completion next spring. Japanese
      Fujitsu for sure) have .18 out there, but it is not
      aggressive at .18 as Samsung or Micron. But if
      you mean
      .15, well now no one is making .15 yet,
      so the jury
      is out.

      Contract at $10 = $6 EPS at $5
      cost...Lessee, you
      are assuming 6*266M = $1.6B profit on per
      profit of $5, implies 1.6B/5 = 319M 64M
      I think the volume is in the ballpark (should
      go higher - let's say 400M), but I can't
      the ASP staying that high for a year.
      (Or even
      another 5-6 weeks!)

      Of course costs will drop too
      (other than the new
      equipment purchases .15 should

      I can easily see $400M in 1Q, a seasonal flop in
      (let's call that a draw), and the usual rise
      demand (and no new fabs other than Samsung) online
      3Q/4Q....perhaps $200M/quarter. $3 EPS FY00.
      Can't imagine
      forecasting into 2001. (Hell I
      can barely imagine
      forecasting beyond 1Q).

      I'm long but ready for it to
      top $110 based on
      how strong 1Q will be, then I'm


    • I believe the flaw is in expecting bit shipments
      to be the same this quarter as last. The first
      quarter (this quarter) is usually the slowest quarter

      1. The DRAM has been shipped for the back to school
      builds last quarter.
      2. Most of the DRAM for the XMAS
      builds was also shipped last quarter, although the last
      of it is shipping now.
      3. PC channel has been
      thouroughly stuffed by October and orders for DRAM drop
      4. This year there may also be an extra backlash if
      higher prices mean systems get populated with less DRAM
      on average than they did last quarter.
      5. This
      year there may also be a Y2K backlash due to the fact
      that everyone who needed a corporate PC tried to buy
      it with Y2K money, and that was all spent before
      October. Not many corporate buyers left who need to buy
      new PCs in the next few months.

      Even so, this
      should be MU's most profitable quarter in a long time.
      The stock price is under pressure now, however,
      because we are starting to get visibility in the SECOND
      quarter and it is not pretty. Low demand AND low prices,
      due to all the competition ramping back into SDRAM
      big time.


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