Agreed. But keep in mind that the liklihood for record low snow for next winter is the same as it was last summer for this year's record snow. The price trend could easily reverse itself next year. A repeat winter in 08-09 that resemble any of the last three will bring the price back to reality.
I was thinking abot selling at this point, but the next two weeks continue to look awfully snowy in the Midwest and Northeast, as well as southern Canada.
This could end up being one of those winters that occurs every decade or more, where a large portion of the country is esperiencing a snowier than normal winter.
I'm staying long for now, and pobably through the Q1 announcement. I may also get long some other winter-sensitive stocks as well (TORO, GMTN, CAB, ACAT) over the next few weeks.
This winter has seen record or near-record snowfall, especially in Ontario. This is the type of winter that CMP "hopes" for each year, but unfortunately rarely receives. Usually, the excuse is that there was a lack of snowfall, warm temperatures, yada, yada, yada. Well this year, they get their wish, except for perhaps in the UK.
I'd wait until after they announce for the Jan-Mar quarter and then sell at $48-52.
Hello! Do you know what this company sells? and do you have access to a radio or television for weather reports! Maybe you are just kidding? They sell SALT unless you live in a cave or Arizona, you should see its snowing or sleeting all over the Midwest and Eastern region of the states. Wow!!! its a very simple stock, if it snows or sleets they make money! and as far as the companies debt level, if you have any knowledge of the firm they have expired alot of the higher interest debt obligations, company seems to be in the cat bird seat right now! Let it snow, let it snow let it snow. Oh they are also a big salt provider in England / Scotland with the lower dollar at their back perhaps!
I could act like many on these message boards and say that the break out is because I bought in recently and I saw it coming. I did buy in recently, but I certainly did not see it coming.
As to your question, I have a weak hypothesis. I get the impression that the market thinks that conditions in the credit markets may improve. That would be very good news for CMP since they are so highly leveraged. It would increase the chances of them refinancing some of their debt at lower rates.
I've also been watching it edge up. Money can't stay on the sidelines very long. Maybe CMP is seen as a safe place to get a bit of a dividend. I'd like to see it move to and stay in the $37 - $39 range, but I'm not in a hurry to see it climb. A gain next year to low $40's (10%) would be OK by me. I like that there isn't a lot of attention paid to it. Keeps the volatility down. This one I like slow and steady.