I review many companies financials on a daily basis; CMP’s are very misleading, flat out smells fishy. They make a great quarterly presentation, but the numbers just don’t add up. Today’s run-up is absurd!
I wanted to ask a few questions in the conference call this morning but they were only taking calls from a few friendly analysts, giving the typical congratulations and asking softball questions, very pre-arranged. This kind of behavior just reaffirms my thoughts on the numbers.
The numbers do not compute, there is approximately 21 million unaccounted for. Salt operating earnings is 15.7 million over or .50 cents a share overstated. Check the numbers using quarterly and 9 months .
NO CASH PAID FOR TAXES IN 9 MONTHS. No great sales growth, most of the increase in revenue was due to higher prices and high shipping costs, this will not continue. Expect a reversal in coming quarters. Take profits while you can in this market!
2007 net earnings 9m 29.6 Reported earnings Q3 2008 3m 28.7 (Should be less for 2008) 58.3 Millions unaccounted for 21.1
Compute the Salt operating earnings= 15.7 million over
"No great sales growth, most of the increase in revenue was due to higher prices and high shipping costs, this will not continue. Expect a reversal in coming quarters. Take profits while you can in this market! "
on the other hand, if you can believe anything that a Canadian might say, the head guy over at Potash, says supplies are so tight that $5000/ton is possible.
"Potash supplies are so tight that a case could be made to charge as much as $5,000 a tonne, the chief financial officer of Potash Corp said earlier this week."
Are you sure you "review many companies financials on a daily basis"? Their balance sheet very clearly states $14.9M income tax expense for 3 months and 35.9M for 9 mo.
<<No great sales growth, most of the increase in revenue was due to higher prices and high shipping costs, this will not continue.>>
$100M increase in sales for the quarter, of which $55M salt and $45M SOP. Salt tons up 35%, SOP tons up 14%. The whole reason they've been able to raise SOP prices by 120% is capacity constraint throughout the industry. They've outlined their plans to dramatically increase their own SOP production, and as capacity increases, they'll sell more at lower prices.
Salt tonnage was up 35% over 2007 for the months of July-September. Let's think about that for a moment: you ever see roads being salted in August?
This report shows everything the company has been telling us to expect: massive increases in SOP profits. Gross margin rose from 30% in 2007 to 47% in 2008. These people are printing money. They used to be an extremely seasonal business-show profit quarters 1 & 4 on winter salt sales, show a loss quarters 2 & 3 while stockpiling salt. The SOP business has exactly reversed seasonality, and every quarter shows good numbers. This year is a little exaggerated, because SOP was still relatively modest in 2007, and the rate of growth will not be sustained into 2009, but they're still going to do very well.