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Five Star Quality Care Inc. Message Board

  • retiredtechie retiredtechie Jun 5, 2012 3:51 PM Flag

    RT: FVE Is Extremely Attractive - PE Ratio Of 2.35

    Those of you who are looking for a very good investment at this time should consider FVE. The senior sector of our population (over 75) will expand quickly with the coming of the leading edge of the baby boomer generation. With facility capacity now being low given minimal construction, that will only be favorable price wise to companies like FVE and it will propel their revenue and bottom line forward. I see this stock as a "can't miss" for superior capital gains during the next 12 to 26 months. I'm in the process of building a good solid position here while these shares are cheaply priced. How can you go wrong given a bright future outlook wiht these shares selling at a PE ratio of 2.35 at this time? My position here now includes 15,000 shares. Once we get our American economy back on a more solid footing with President Mitt Romney, you can be sure FVE will be a standout performer within the senior care sector. My two other favorites at this time are SRZ and SUNH.

    Cheers and good investing,
    RETIREDTECHIE/RT

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    • FVE is my only horse.. using it as my pack mule.. may have to shoot it soon.

    • retireteachie.. you better put SKH on your radar... bustin out.. Fve will move soon.. these two can move in tandum to the market.

      • 1 Reply to msears99
      • Msears:

        Like I said previously, the entire senior care sector will be a very sweet spot in the stock market as we move through the next several years. With due respect to your comment about SKH, I view FVE as the better of the two for capital gains appreciation at this time over the next 12 to 36 months. Again, my favorites in this sector are SRZ, FVE and SUNH in that order - - - SKH would certainly be a decent pick. I see explosive growth in revenue and earnings going forward within the senior care sector bcause of built up demand and other factors. You simply can't go wrong with the top tier within the senior care sector, and yes, I would not be hesitant to include your SKH in that group.

        Cheers and good investing,
        RETIREDTECHIE/RT

    • We will need a bridge to travel over the Quick Sand of Mackay.. but our foundation of assets is well served...

      Really no one has clearner books than FVE.. Institutions are in a wait and see for now.

    • Retired teacher ... The p/e is not the story here.. Fve has virtually no debt on its books... A little montage here nor there.. 30 owned debt free communities.. Value in the area of 350 million min... Earnings are going to start to turn.. We hope.. That should start a run to $7 . Wall street took 25 % of the ffloat last year @$5.

      So the baking is there.

      When it goes.. It will be quick

      • 1 Reply to msears99
      • Msears99:

        No matter how you view FVE, and there are many ways in which to accomplish that, its stock bought at current share price levels will easily deliver a 2 or 3 bagger within the next 12 to 36 months. I personally rate FVE as one of the best "no-brainers" out there within the senior care sector. Senior care from all the analysis that I've done will be a sweet spot in the stock market given the arrival of the leading edge of the baby boomer generation which will only grow and grow in numbers through the next two decades. I believe pent up demand over the last several years, lack of new facility construction and future very elastic pricing will produce excellent revenue and bottom line growth and with that will come significant share price enhancement. My two other favorites in this sector are SRZ and SUNH. I'm in the process of loading up on all 3 of these mentioned stocks given a long term approach of 12 to 36 months. Don't take my suggestion to strong buy these stocks. Be sure to do your own due dilignence and make your own decision before you leap.

        Cheers and good investing,
        RETIREDTECHIE/RT

    • The fundamentals appear to be strengthening and the demographics are certainly impressive. FVE also trades at a tremendous discount to its owned assets which represent over $6 of value. FVE is also going to start benefitting from improving occupancy which should drive significant upside and leverage in the leased and managed properties.

      FVE also has transitioned successfully from 25% private pay to nearly 80% private pay. This is a great move given the Medicare and Medicaid climate.

      However, FVE does not really trade at a 2.35 PE. Those prior earnings include a one time gain. In reality, FVE should trade against EVITDA as do most of its peers. It is only about 4x EBITDA, which represents one of the most attractive valuations in the sector. Most of its peers trade at 2x to 3x that valuation.

    • RT

      Good to have you involved on the board. I agree that FVE represents a compelling value, but it has been a frustrating 12 months. Your timing seems perfect. Clearly, there is a pattern over the last decade. If you buy in the low single digits and sell in the high single digits to low double digits, you can do that cycle every few years.

    • Hey RT ... it has been a while, but in early 2007 we were both in a med tech stock that was acquired at a good price ... can't recall the name?? What other sectors are you interested in, besides seniors assisted living mgt?

      FVE has been a real dog, though it has seen its day in the past few years. Credibility with investors and bottom line results have been lacking

      Have a similar investment in FVE, but will not add a penny, until I see real buying and momentum of some kind

      • 1 Reply to pjhatbpi
      • Pjhatbpi:

        Yes, I seem to recall your name here at Yahoo. Nice to be in contact with you once again.

        Frankly, I think you are missing a fabulous entry point with FVE but that is certainly your choice. We all have our individual zones of comfort before we leap into stocks. Again, I see FVE as being extremely attractive at current share pricing levels and I'm building a nice position in it.

        As you may know from our past contacts here at Yahoo. I'm strictly into micro cap/small cap med-tech, bio-tech and general healthcare stocks. I was out of the market for quite a number of months, however, I've decided to re-enter again. My latest line up of 17 such stocks which is still in the process of evolving includes the following:

        CAMH
        TLON
        STXS
        SIGA
        VSCP
        BIOL
        FVE
        SURG
        STAA
        ATRC
        ELGX
        SUBH
        RTIX
        SRZ
        DCTH
        ANGN
        CSII

        As for the stock that we both held back in 2007 that was acquired by a larger company, I'm thinking it was Zevex International (ZVXI). Am I right? I made a nice bundle on ZVXI through an acquisition. Hope the same applied to you.

        Cheers and good investing,
        RETIREDTECHIE/RT

 
FVE
3.41-0.18(-5.01%)Sep 19 4:07 PMEDT

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