online advertising spending up.
Agreed! But keep in mind compound interest rates and how they apply in this case revenue/earnings growth. If they keep up SFE growth at 40%+ YOY with minimal cost of revenue, SFE will soon become the cash machine. Please also don't forget that they could easily charge $10/year for SF online and add 7MM to the bottom line.
Again very speculative and we really don't know what the future will bring but weighing the risk vs potentital growth IMO it is worth the shot!
GL and as always thanks for your input!
> (these numbers you and company keep touting as "SF users", but they don't pay).
The same argument was with Linux - how can you make money if you give software away for free. But all the people who used Linux for free became its strongest advocates and the results (like RedHat) speak for itself.
LNUX has paying customers. And yes, a lot of developers using SF for free - but guess what - once these developers get engaged in paying projects, they will most probably use tools that they already know. So don't underestimate the "free use" of SF.
There will be also several companies potentially interested in purchasing LNUX - just to get hold of their "customer base", even if these > 800K developers are using SF for free. The mind set it's what will count for them.
Sure, it will be a question of execution on part of LNUX management, but currently they have a very good chance to repeat the same success as RedHat did. It won't happen from one day to the other, so there will be swings up and down, but based on the consistent results heading toward profitability I believe that the company is on the right track to ride the OSS tidal wave.
good points and i agree with most of what you say - OSS is spreading, no doubt, and that's a good thing for sure. It is just my opinion that this company is not going to sell a lot of SFE to become profitable and stable, etc...again, just my opinion, and sounds like you believe the opposisite - which is cool. Buy up the shares now if you believe this co. has long term potential.....
but having been in this apce selling tools similar to this, and bigger more complex tools, it is a finite market opportunity, that's all i am saying....and i just don't see these guys goign the distance, i don't see 10's of thousands of new +paying+ customers on the horizon....loads of people using it for free (these numbers you and company keep touting as "SF users", but they don't pay).
Yes, you can use any tools you want. But so can the 804,169 Registered Users of SourceForge. But somehow they chose SF as their tool of choice.
When SF started, CVS was in existance too, but with the growth of Linux and OpenSource more and more people started to use SF as their tool for their OpenSource project management. Currently they have 77,026 Hosted Projects.
Sure, many of them don't really count, but what's critical is the mind share of people using SF. Once OpenSource will get to companies that are currently not involved in it, and they will hire programmers who have experience with SF, what source management environment do you think they will recommend?
And what about the small local county governments? Do you really think, all of them will go and deploy Rational?
And that's where the growth will be in the next years - not the huge companies like Intel or Cisco, but the small companies or small local governments that will try to save money by going OpenSource. And they will rely on programmers and consultants who are exposed to OpenSource tools like the SF. And that's where the growth will be...
So if you want to build your own equivalent, go ahead and do it, but please realize the many people wont' be interested in doing it and instead will choose a good and tested package of tools like SF helping them to be more productive.
So please stop spreading the FUD about LNUX and constantly bashing them. Are they perfect? No! But LNUX is far away from the dark picture that you're constantly trying to paint on this board!
open source technologies (linux OS, Apache web server, etc)will continue to get bigger and bigger as you say..no question about that. BUT, SFE has nothign to do with that: e.g. there is no direct connection to rising OSS use and SFE sales....why can't you all understand that?? I can work on OSS projects using any tools I want! Namely, freely available CVS for ver. control, why pay for SFE when I can get its components for free? Or, use existign tools I have in house?
There is no direct tangeble link between more open source software being used and SFE sales....
Never say never! :)
I've seen so many companies that people have written off, incl. Apple, Tyco, Dell, etc., and somehow they didn't go under! :)
So, you can claim as much as you want that it will "never" scale large enough, but once the whole mess with SCO is over and more and more small companies and governments will go OpenSoure, SFE will be there...
Yep, the shorties have now upper hand but I've been with LNUX down to $0.70 and was patient enough to wait, so I don't really worry as long as OpenSource is getting bigger and bigger...
exactly! they are a content company right now....how big do you think a niche content site ad sales an grow? not much more....Intel, and other ad buyers on these sites comprise the majority of their revenue....and they aren't goign to suddenly pay 10x more for ad banenrs on these web sites....
this company is a red herring...
"Then how do you explain steadily growing earnings, moving slowly but surely to profitability?"
The answer to that is found in the growth and improving bottom line of VA's OSDN unit. The online ad sales market is improving and OSDN will grow with it.
I'm not discounting the future potential of SourceForge Enterprise product, but right now the company is more about OSDN than Sourceforge Enterprise.