> Perhaps an alternative is to offer premium subscription services in addition to free basic services.
Blah blah blah...
If you would "really" follow the company and "really" be interested in dealing with facts instead of just spreading FUD on this board, you would know that that's exactly what they are doing.
The "Power User Premium Services" (see below) were announced almost 2 months ago on Feb. 6th.
I am sorry but your credibility goes down the tubes with every post like the above. You pretend to know everything about the company, the one who is interested only in facts, and who trashes LNUX based on these facts, but unfortunately, you don't even bother to do a basic research on the company and find out the relevant facts. Instead, you pick some quotes from the risk section to present LNUX in a bad light, and to spread FUD.
Please do some research before you trash the company again.
Power User Premium Services:
* Advanced search tools to find projects on SourceForge.net.
Includes ability to search on category, description and name. Also includes boolean searching and stem word matching.
* Advanced search within projects.
Boolean searching. Search all aspects of project at once. (pervasive search across Trackers (Support Requests, etc.) and discussion forums).
* Priority Technical Support for SF.net site usage.
Your Support Requests to the SF.net staff team will be moved to the start of the queue for processing.
* Project monitoring.
Have a complete view of ANYTHING that happens to a project. If it is a support ticket, Feature Request, or forum entry, you\'ll know about it. We\'ll email you on every change made within the project you are
monitoring. This generates additional email, but it is a great way to stay on the front lines of the development process.
* Direct Downloads
Download any file released on SourceForge.net in a hurry. No need to use the website; download files directly from the command line.
If you need to add software to a remote server, this is the easiest way to do it.
* Subscriber icon next to your name.
This icon shows the community that you are supporting SourceForge.net and the Open Source community.
These services are available either for $6.95 per month, or $39.00 annually.
Thanks for the informed reply. You gave me a lot to think about. Once a community is developed, the momentum begins to work in favor of whoever captured mindshare... OSDN in this case. The fact that advertising composes the vast majority of revenues is testimony to the strength of the online presense.
It just seems dangerous to further monetize the community beyond advertising. While it might work at first, I suspect another community would begin to form under the auspices of an industry heavyweight such as IBM. Subscribers would gradually migrate to the free site and VA would end up without paid subscribers and without advertising revenues.
Though I mostly deal with the business side of things these days, I hang out with a lot of folks that are very active in opensource, including several Linux developers. The impression I get is that most opensource practitioners would revolt against a purely subscription model. Perhaps an alternative is to offer premium subscription services in addition to free basic services.
Re: Finances Much Worse Than You Believe
You want to make it sound like Larry and the CEO decided yesterday that the stock got its peak and it's time to sell. That's just another FUD from your side.
The general pace of selling by the CEO and a key Director should concern investors. Irregardless of price-timing issues, the point being made is that 200K shares, or more than 10% of the shares traded, were disposed on that day. Who knows where the price would be today without this sort of downward pressure over the past months. $3.50? $4.00? Not to mention the lack of conviction implied by this pace of share disposal.
If I were long, I would be upset and concerned.
End Quart >> 1/31/04 * 10/31/03 * 7/31/03
Net revenues >> 8,856 * 5,797 * 6,556
Net Income >> (1,431) * (13,798) * (91,038)
Oops, my mistake, I was looking at the *Annual* Net Income data instead of the quarterly data, sorry about that.
It should be:
End Quart >> 1/31/04 * 10/31/03 * 7/31/03
Net revenues >> 8,856 * 5,797 * 6,556
Net Income >> (1,431) * (1,223) * (2,383)
Once again, I wholeheartedly apologize for my mistake.
Lots of good comment lately, both pro and con.
I'd comment on one tidbit. Someone said, "It is ridiculous that none of CEO, CFO and Senior Vice Presidents hold any LNUX stock."
I disagree with this comment. Most tech companies are very generous with options, particularly to senior execs. It is silly to expect them to exercise options just to hold the stock, unless the options are near expiration. I haven't looked at the Proxy (which provides BENEFICIAL ownership, meaning that it includes unexercised above-water options) but I would guess that senior management holds lots of LNUX shares - but in the form of options they haven't exercised.
That said, the strong, unrelenting pace of insider selling over the past two years does not inspire confidence, I'll admit.
> let's deal in facts.
It's interesting how selective you're on which facts you're using. That alone puts your credibility in question. Since you've shorted the stock and want it to go down, I am not surprised, but don't try to come accross as the one who wants to deal with facts.
Since you're so knowledgeable, you should know that most CEOs have stock plans that they are "locked in" ahead of time and that they cannot decide freely from one day to the other when to sell. You want to make it sound like Larry and the CEO decided yesterday that the stock got its peak and it's time to sell. That's just another FUD from your side.
Please stop using those tactics. If you want to deal with facts then please provide details about their stock selling plans and when they locked them in, instead of spreading FUD speculations.
I don't have the time to respond to you right now but your numbers are not correct. Especially 7/2003 where 99% of the loss was related to their previous business and it is no longer in play. You have to look at their current debt/equity and use the latest qrt loss to see how much cash they burn and how much they have left.
I will try to do thi sover the wekend. But if you recall yoursourceisopen made a great point after last earnings that they have plenty of cash.
"I appreciate the non-emotional, factual and informed dialog and look forward to your reply. Good job."
Ditto! I believe we should be here to help each other and not to isult, hype, bash, etc.
I will try to aswer your points as best as I can. Remember that this is JMO!
"The most serious issue faced by VA Software is that enterprise customers, the ones that most need the software, have the development staff and savvy required to form their own collaboration platform using opensource code."
Unless you are a huge company and about to spend $10MM or more on SFE it does not pay to build your own. Never Does! This is not an issue except for developing countries where labor is cheap and governments may intitiate such projects. India, China, Russia!
"Do you think demand for SourceForge software might ramp in spite of the availability of substitute products? If so, why?"
I only know of one competative product. Collab.net! No where near the client base or working relationships as LNUX. Although you never know. THey are not public yet otherwise I would hedge by buying their stock also.
"Do you think a subscription model will work for OSDN, though? This is the open source community we are talking about here."
Yes it will. As soon as they make broadband access available allowing developers to work at the same speed as if the software was local I would think yes. $20/year is nothing. Again, vidence of this is the latest press release with their providing broadband access! See LNUX News on Yahoo!
"Don't you think that a publicly supported free site would emerge if OSDN went the subscription route?"
Maybe! But I would think for that to happen you would have to ave the current OSDN users migrate the entire community almost in a single move. The benefit of OSDN is developing relationships and sharing information. Moving to another site on your own qould mean you looe these benefits. The other poinnt to remember is the investment required to create such a site from both development point of vew in marketing/adverising! But it is a valid point and as I said you never know.
What makes LNUX exciting is that it is operating in virgin teritory. This however, is also what makes it very risky!
"PS. I am a fickle investor and will switch sides in a heartbeat if the facts line up."
That is the way you should be! IOW! ME TOO! This is not about being right or wrong or falling in love with a co/stock. It's about getting it right! IMO
It is ridiculous that none of CEO, CFO and Senior Vice Presidents hold any LNUX stock. They all should be fired! Let the new blood come in and work hard for getting more business idea.
> It is very common for senior management to put option sales plans in place that are designed to diversify their investments and spread risk.
But the LNUX senior management are selling LNUX crazy like there is no tomorrow! Fire them now before it is too late!