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  • vortecman vortecman Sep 13, 2000 3:10 PM Flag

    vortecman

    boy if this baby goes back to 320 i'll stop working for sure! in @ $44 250 shares and then again @ $28 400 shares.. i don't need much to live on...

    v-man

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    • Well, it might only hit $200 in 24 months... it
      might take 36-40 months to hit $320
      again...

      $320 ~ $14 billion market cap ~ 10*$1.4 billion
      forward looking revenue ====> $350 million / quarter
      [The factor of 10 came from the recent analyst
      upgrade]

      We're running at $50 million / quarter now, with a
      quarterly growth of $16 million / quarter, or about 32%, in
      the most recent quarter.

      ($350-$50)/$16 ~ 19,
      so we've got about 4 years to wait if LNUX only
      grows linearly from here (Because in 4 years, the
      forward looking revenue will be $1.4 billion).


      However, if we instead grow at 30% compounded quarterly,
      $50*1.3^x = $350 when x ~ 7.5, so we've got about 2 years
      until we hit $320 again.

      Now, of course, it will
      probably fall somewhere in between those two - somewhere
      between 2 and 4 years... but, retirement in 4 years
      sounds alright to me :)

      Also, realize that if
      LNUX outperforms in the gross-margins, we could see
      that coefficient of 10 rise to more like 20-30 (since
      50% higher gross margins can result in 3x-4x the
      earnings)... just take a look at CSCO, they have a
      price/revenue of 23 with gross margins around 17%...

    • ...


      Now, of course, it will probably
      fall somewhere in between those two - somewhere
      between 2 and 4 years... but, retirement in 4 years
      sounds alright to me :)

      Also, realize that if
      LNUX outperforms in the gross-margins, we could see
      that coefficient of 10 rise to more like 20-30 (since
      50% higher gross margins can result in 3x-4x the
      earnings)... just take a look at CSCO, they have a
      price/revenue of 23 with gross margins around
      17%...

      LNUX should have gross margins around 25%-35%, and
      should thus deserve a price/revenue of at least
      10-15...

      Currently, our price/revenue is around 12... but that is for
      the TTM. If we look at forward-looking price/revenue,
      CSCO's is around 17, where as LNUX's is around 7. And
      remember, CSCO is growing revenue at 40-50%, not 300-500%
      like LNUX.

      LNUX will shoot to $70-$90 in the
      coming months.

    • Well, it might only hit $200 in 24 months... it
      might take 36-40 months to hit $320
      again...

      $320 ~ $14 billion market cap ~ 10*$1.4 billion
      forward looking revenue ====> $350 million / quarter
      [The factor of 10 came from the recent analyst
      upgrade]

      We're running at $50 million / quarter now, with a
      quarterly growth of $16 million / quarter, or about 32%, in
      the most recent quarter.

      ($350-$50)/$16 ~ 19,
      so we've got about 4 years to wait if LNUX only
      grows linearly from here (Because in 4 years, the
      forward looking revenue will be $1.4 billion).


      However, if we instead grow at 30% compounded quarterly,
      $50*1.3^x = $350 when x ~ 7.5, so we've got about 2 years
      until we hit $320 again...********No, wait, if we grow
      at 30% compounded quarterly, without slowing at all,
      we will only have to wait 4 quarters, aka 12 months,
      until our forward looking revenue would demand a price
      of $320*******

      Now, of course, it will
      probably fall somewhere in between those two - somewhere
      between 2 and 4 years... but, retirement in 4 years
      sounds alright to me :)

      Also, realize that if
      LNUX outperforms in the gross-mar

 
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