Geeknet, Inc. Message Board

...


Now, of course, it will probably
fall somewhere in between those two - somewhere
between 2 and 4 years... but, retirement in 4 years
sounds alright to me :)

Also, realize that if
LNUX outperforms in the gross-margins, we could see
that coefficient of 10 rise to more like 20-30 (since
50% higher gross margins can result in 3x-4x the
earnings)... just take a look at CSCO, they have a
price/revenue of 23 with gross margins around
17%...

LNUX should have gross margins around 25%-35%, and
should thus deserve a price/revenue of at least
10-15...

Currently, our price/revenue is around 12... but that is for
the TTM. If we look at forward-looking price/revenue,
CSCO's is around 17, where as LNUX's is around 7. And
remember, CSCO is growing revenue at 40-50%, not 300-500%
like LNUX.

LNUX will shoot to $70-$90 in the
coming months.

Well, it might only hit $200 in 24 months... it
might take 36-40 months to hit $320
again...

$320 ~ $14 billion market cap ~ 10*$1.4 billion
forward looking revenue ====> $350 million / quarter
[The factor of 10 came from the recent analyst
upgrade]

We're running at $50 million / quarter now, with a
quarterly growth of $16 million / quarter, or about 32%, in
the most recent quarter.

($350-$50)/$16 ~ 19,
so we've got about 4 years to wait if LNUX only
grows linearly from here (Because in 4 years, the
forward looking revenue will be $1.4 billion).


However, if we instead grow at 30% compounded quarterly,
$50*1.3^x = $350 when x ~ 7.5, so we've got about 2 years
until we hit $320 again.

Now, of course, it will
probably fall somewhere in between those two - somewhere
between 2 and 4 years... but, retirement in 4 years
sounds alright to me :)

Also, realize that if
LNUX outperforms in the gross-margins, we could see
that coefficient of 10 rise to more like 20-30 (since
50% higher gross margins can result in 3x-4x the
earnings)... just take a look at CSCO, they have a
price/revenue of 23 with gross margins around 17%...

Well, it might only hit $200 in 24 months... it
might take 36-40 months to hit $320
again...

$320 ~ $14 billion market cap ~ 10*$1.4 billion
forward looking revenue ====> $350 million / quarter
[The factor of 10 came from the recent analyst
upgrade]

We're running at $50 million / quarter now, with a
quarterly growth of $16 million / quarter, or about 32%, in
the most recent quarter.

($350-$50)/$16 ~ 19,
so we've got about 4 years to wait if LNUX only
grows linearly from here (Because in 4 years, the
forward looking revenue will be $1.4 billion).


However, if we instead grow at 30% compounded quarterly,
$50*1.3^x = $350 when x ~ 7.5, so we've got about 2 years
until we hit $320 again...********No, wait, if we grow
at 30% compounded quarterly, without slowing at all,
we will only have to wait 4 quarters, aka 12 months,
until our forward looking revenue would demand a price
of $320*******

Now, of course, it will
probably fall somewhere in between those two - somewhere
between 2 and 4 years... but, retirement in 4 years
sounds alright to me :)

Also, realize that if
LNUX outperforms in the gross-mar