Timing of course is the thing. If one is a longtermer then no worries. On the other hand Bernstein controls this thing by virtue of super voting shares. The simple fact that they were historically site development people put them behind the curve in realizing the need to downsize that area...they were attached to the business. Hence we find ourselves last of the three public survivors to organically reach free cash- albeit possibly much sooner from debt restructuring.
The dog days of Summer are upon us...might be a bit frustrating ...i'm not sure it is straight up from here. Then again..how much sense does it make to have this cash burning a hole in your pocket at a cost of 12%? What is your thinking of their timing of a move on the 12 percenters? I mean when that happens any resistance at $4.90 that the tech gnomes are pinpointing will be taken out post haste.
Again I am liking your thinking here ... it looks like the crowd on board SBAC is getting very interesting ...
... well what would you say would happen to the share price and the perceived validity of the endgame scenario IF they were to turn around and sell their service and development business? If you carefully read through some of the postings here [I'm not suggesting you do as that is now a big job, but I have read all of them over the past 5 months] ... you'll glean that this has been indicated [who saids none of the posters here work in the sector?!]. I also think that Bagwell sounded pretty well sidelined during the Q1 CC and more telling was that there is zero mention of the services business in the FBR Presentation. Anyhow we see this and up we go.
The refi is a done deal ... just look at how the 12% are trading.
If the refi of the 12's is a done deal...then the obligatory upgrades of the common by the refi sales syndicate will be enough of a catalyst. That along with the the reformed balance sheet and free cashflow will propel the next upleg. It is the season and the ebullience in the share price that temper me short term. However, if they act quick...like in the next 60 days on the 12%...6+ would seem possible. If not then the NOV-APR period is the season for gain and an election year with an improving economy doesn't hurt either.
The number portabality issue you pointed out is also i'd think a very unpredictable sticking point in carrier thinking. They really might bust loose in the third quarter with quality of service installations.
The sale of services seems passe now....especially since they have repeatedly pointed out how they can "Scale" that part of the business. Translation- "Scale" means we intend to keep services. They have often said that a service presence keeps them in touch with the carrier thinking and the field. I don't think they sell services...there isn't any market for it because the very overcapacity that has caused problems in services makes it a less than desirable commodity. There really aren't any assets here anyway besides expertise and some trucks...and you have the issue of corporate culture. No...in the end the balance sheet is the catalyst not any sale. I would think it foolhardy on their part to wait on bond action with the likes of SONS, SIRI, and many others being granted access to capital. We're in cyclical bull markets now...not a secular one and capital markets won't be freewheeling nearly as long a duration as they were in the 90's.