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Chiquita Brands International Inc. Message Board

  • CQBholder CQBholder Dec 21, 1998 10:35 AM Flag

    hello first timer

    suggest you read this board from it's inception.

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    • I believe that they are setting up a framework to
      let the WTO panel to rule before the US imposes
      sanctions.However it does appear we will win sometime in April.In
      regard to the Lindners I disagree.In January 1992 the
      market value of their stock $1.2 billion versus $250
      million today.Ithink you would agree that is real money.

    • Looks as though something will be worked
      out(according to the recent CBS Presswire). If it sounds
      favorable for CQB, then the short squeeze can contribute to
      a quick but temporary melt up in stock price. There
      are 4.2 million shares short.

      Hope your
      prognosis is correct because I've held this nonperformer
      for over 3 years. It's very difficult to watch the
      S&P averages going up year after year and Chiquita
      drowning.

      My opinion on the management hasn't changed though.
      I don't believe the Lindners care about share value
      only share ownership.

      Lazio

    • A little detail why you are an idiot to short
      this stock.BEsides the extremely favorable
      fundamentals for the industry as a whole and CQB specifically,
      it is possible that any morning you can wake up and
      there can be a favorable settlement wity the EU/WTO
      regarding a significant positive change to CQB'S quota
      position.It would not be to much fun covering at
      $20/share.SLEEP TIGHT!

    • The Lindner family does not need these cushy
      jobs.The net worth of the family must be pushing
      $1/billon.Remember the shares are not held by them directly but
      rather through the American Financial Co.(NYSE)which
      they control.Carl Lindner has made a lot of money for
      people on Wall Street and also lost some money(Circle
      K).They want the share price to go up so their investment
      in AFC will appreciate.My feeling is that the
      investment community wants to see a continuation of the
      favorable pricing environment for a period of time before
      they commit.However any settlement with the EU in
      regard to quotas that improves CQB'S market position
      will be followed by an immediate run up in the
      stock.To sum up it is apparent that the industry
      fundamentals are surely in our favor and any decent eu
      settlement is gravy.

    • when will Wall St. recognize the next period and
      talk up the stock to investors/clients? This company
      has had NO positive relations with the investment
      community. With Carl holding most of the bag, there's little
      that this company can do to win the respect of the
      investment community. If the Lidners can relinquish their
      strangle hold on this company, then I say CQB has a good
      chance of being recognized favorably. The Lidners are
      too possessive of their positions, they wouldn't want
      to lose their "peachy" jobs. They don't care about
      shareholder value and I don't blame investors of shying away
      from this company. Despite all the good news (EU/WTO
      banana tariffs, future supply/demand relationships,etc),
      bottom line....management really sucks! Big money will
      never come in until there's a change on the top!
      Regretably I'm a shareholder with empty
      pockets.

      Lazio

    • You are exactly right.

      It is well
      documented that Honduras will need two years to get
      production back to anything close to what it was. It was
      obvious from the CNN articles when Warshaw was in
      Honduras, that CQB has absolutely no interest in rebuilding
      to the SAME levels. It will be interesting to watch
      what kind of Govt. concessions are extracted in return
      for both CQB and DOL to replant at all. Warshaw had
      to regroup and gather his composure when he was
      asked if CQB would rebuild. One could surmise that he
      had to pick his words carefully, as if not to say the
      wrong thing,..... There should have been NO HESITATION
      if CQB was truly going to rebuild to the same
      levels, no questions asked, good for the people, good for
      CQB etc. The fact that he had to stop and think
      speaks volumes.

      Ecuador growers have always been
      on shaky ground. Don't forget that as that country's
      fruit is the cheapest, it brings in less money per box

    • I assume that you did your homework before you
      invested in Chiquita.Therefore i am sure you realize that
      commodity cycles run over long periods of time.The period
      from 1992-1998 was one of over supply.However the
      second half of 1998 has seen a major reversal of the
      supply/demand relationship.If you read some of my previous
      postings it is apparent that the next 3+ years will see a
      positive reversal of that trend.If I am correct $14/share
      will seem like a bargain in six months.

    • Do you have any insight regarding the current
      situation in Honduras,Nicaragua and guatamala vis a vis the
      pace of the clean up and the replanting program.My
      sources tell me it will be at least two years before any
      significant volume comes out of the first two countries.I
      also believe that both Dol and Cqb will not reinvest
      in the infrastructure to get volume level back to
      where they were.Also it appears that some of the
      smaller Ecuador growers might be in serious financial
      trouble.Do you think that was the reason that they were the
      lead country calling for the WTO to review the new EU
      guidelines?

    • I would guess that the EU generates 65% to 75% of
      CQB's operating income, unless there is strong pricing
      in the US. I don't think they make much with their
      other businesses, such as private label canning which
      has low margins and high inventory.

      I have
      bought some CQB at current levels and would sell once it
      got above $14. This is a commodity/agricultural
      business not branded foods, so some of these cycles will
      drive me crazy. CQB would be a better investment if
      mmgmt. implemented a cost reduction program and
      instituted a basic strategy using an ROI metric.

      My
      knowledge of transfer pricing is a result of too many
      discussions of cross-border tax strategies. Hopefully, the
      new SEC guidelines regarding more simple reporting by
      business unit will do away with this type of nonsense.
      Good luck!

    • Thanks for the clarification Stonecrab. I guess
      it doesn't pay to (over?)analyze 10K's. No wonder so
      many people default to technical analysis - it's a lot
      less frustrating. Speaking of which, I think I'll buy
      Chiquita if it falls to $8/share (a completely arbitrary
      number which I'll back into some other time).

      By
      the way, how did you know about the transfer pricing,
      and how far off do you think the operating income
      figures really are?

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