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Chiquita Brands International, Message Board

  • qolmn qolmn Jan 25, 1999 5:29 AM Flag

    bargain stock?

    read Individual Investor's article


    http://www.homestead.com/Pallas/iia.html

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    • Attn: pastemp

      I've come into some
      interesting information that I'd like to fax over to you for
      your comment.

      CQBholder, you'd probably be
      interested to see this as well.

      You may e-mail me as
      follows and please include your fax
      number:

      davea@paramont.com

    • The current position of the dispute is exactly
      where we want to be.The original Dispute Resolution
      panel is reviewing Ecuadors request for a ruling on the
      EU position and asked the WTO/DSB to issue a
      compliance plan for the EU.In addition the sanctions are
      hanging over the head of the EU if they do not
      comply.Further more VP Gore in his speech in Geneva reiterated
      the US position via free trade.It is just a matter of
      time!

    • Remember many of the write offs were related to
      the disolution of John Morrell.In addition due to the
      change in their european quota excess transportation and
      other related costs were written down.Also as you know
      farming is a business of unknowns.I am not trying to say
      these guys are great managers.They have a chance at
      yearend 1998 to clean up the balance due to the Hurricane
      --let us hope they do it wisely.I am sure we have all
      seen that the US got their way at the WTO.they knew
      that the EU would exercise the arbitration clause but
      the trade sanctions can go into effect in marchI
      maintain that the EU just wants to give the ACP countries
      the better selling season this year before they
      fold.Their was a quote by a Jamacian agricultural minister
      that pointed out that 45% of banana growers have
      dropped out in the last 18 months because of the WTO
      ruling.Earnings this year will be incredibly strong even with the
      new quotas not starting until July 1.The stock price
      of DOLE has been steadily moving up over the last
      two weeks.Just hang in there alittle longer.

    • Dear Chiquita-watchers,

      For those that
      wish to brush up on the past 5-6 years happenings in
      the trade, visit the following web site and run a
      search on "chiquita /
      bananas":

      www.fruitnet.com/eurofruit/

      I just discovered this one and not yet fooled
      around on it too much -- if anyone stumbles along
      something interesting, please make a posting so that all
      can share in the bounty.

      I've also unearthed
      and am now working on securing the "Mother of all
      Banana Resources" for our merry band -- more to
      follow.

      Ah, Those poor Del Monte people -- no one's posted a
      message there since January 9th. Chiquita watchers are
      #1.

    • I wish you the best of luck on your purchase. All
      in all, I do believe that you will come out ahead on
      the deal. I am just afraid that you won't come out as
      far ahead as you imagine.

      I do truly hope that
      I am wrong, as I hold a large (large to me anyway)
      position, and would be ecstatic if it indeed go to the
      moon.

      As I have said, your arguments are sound, the
      indicators are indeed pointing in our favor. The only thing
      that scares me is the unknown of the B/S. As I reread
      the previous years, quarters announcements I am
      amazed at the continual use of the phrases "unusual
      charges" and "costs related to repositioning of core
      production assets".

      That is code for writing off bad
      sh*t. If that is over, or at least less than the upside
      coming to us from volume and pricing improvements, then
      we shall all profit.

      Once again, best of luck
      on your shares.

      Let's be sure to keep up the
      discussion as our investments rise

    • As we all know there are no banana
      futures.However the people at the USDA are extremely helpfull.I
      asked them for pricing information and volume
      information for each week from Nov.15 to the present
      1999/1998 versus 1998/1997.Guess what---volume is down and
      prices are up sharply in every market around the
      world.It does not take a genius to figure out that volumes
      are not going to increase any time soon,which would
      lead a conservative man to conclude the price trend
      will continue.Therefore I have purchased 32000 shares
      of CQB to back up my analysis.This is called an
      investment opportunity and the idea is to buy the stock
      before it goes up in price.I like to invest in
      situations where I know something about what I am doing.I
      spent several years at United Brands and the above is
      my analysis.If you can come up with a scenario that
      will make the bananas grow back faster in
      Honduras,nicaragua,guatamala and Equador then you win.I also have the wildcard
      on my side that CQB wins with the EU,small Caribbean
      producers go out of business and the supply situation
      tightens more.P_lease do me a favor and short some shares
      so I can watch you scramble in the spring!

    • Pastemp -
      Those are spot prices, not future
      prices. I am not convinced that the recent uptick is
      assured going forward. Apparently, there are those who
      agree with me, given the general direction that CQB
      stock has been moving.

    • I posted a while back that Paz was new to the
      company and that his purchases were probably due to
      either options upon his arrival, or his first foray into
      the company stock. Remember, he has not been with CQB
      long (+-2years). The big question is, has HE bought
      more recently, or as I posted a while back, was that
      first batch enough to satisfy him for a
      while.

      If he is still buying, take that as a big vote of
      confidence, if not, it probably only means that he is getting
      enough of it through the various ESOP, 401K plan
      vehicles available to employees, and doesn't feel the need
      to go on the open market.


      As for Carl,
      well, no one responded to my comments previously, so I
      can't really judge why the investment. Again, I
      question where and how those purchases were made. Was any
      of it options? Board compensation? A buyout of
      another individual's position. Please note that most of
      the Australians who got stock for their sale to CQB,
      promptly opted out. Again, that may not mean
      anything.

      Remember that the controlling interest hasn't changed, but
      any change in the percentages of ownership (direct or
      indirect) does have an impact on whether CQB is
      consolidated on the books of AIG, which has certain politik
      implications to Carl's empire. Any purchase of shares should
      be viewed as a neutral without further
      information.

      Not trying to be too cynical, but just playing
      abogado del diablo.

    • However, I am not selling now. It's truly too
      close to the end of the game.

      I would love to be
      proven wrong, because I'll eat crow as long as I have a
      huge gain, which is what will happen if it does turn
      around.

      Again, I can see the same things you do, and agree with
      you on your analysis. I see those box prices and I
      can do the math. The profits are there for FY99. I
      just have too much experience with those gringos in
      Cincy to know what they are liable to pull out of their
      sleeves. That said, I also think I know how the market
      will react to that news, so I see a somewhat tempered
      movement in the stock. However, I am not selling at 9 1/2.
      If it does drop any lower, then I will buy it by the
      boatload, say 9 or God forbid 8 1/2.

      The top line
      will be there, I'm just worried about what is left to
      fall to the bottom line.

      Still keeping the
      faith, but guardedly skeptical.

    • In a inarticulate way you have said it
      all.Bananas are a commodity pure and simple.In the case of
      CQB let us call it a branded commodity.Cqb gets a
      small premium for its product in the marketplace
      because of the Chiquita Logo.But at the end of the day
      this business is driven purely by supply and demand
      and the cycle is turning in our favor for all the
      reasons I have previously mentioned.The quality of
      management will not impact earnings over the next several
      years.They should focus on getting the best deal possible
      eith the EU and keep those cash registers hummingTo
      CQBHolder I think it is time for you to sell.If after all
      thesyearsyou can not see the convergence of several positive
      forces at this time then your vision is permanently
      clouded.

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