Chiquita Brands International Inc. Message Board

Attn: pastemp

I've come into some
interesting information that I'd like to fax over to you for
your comment.

CQBholder, you'd probably be
interested to see this as well.

You may e-mail me as
follows and please include your fax
number:

davea@paramont.com

The current position of the dispute is exactly
where we want to be.The original Dispute Resolution
panel is reviewing Ecuadors request for a ruling on the
EU position and asked the WTO/DSB to issue a
compliance plan for the EU.In addition the sanctions are
hanging over the head of the EU if they do not
comply.Further more VP Gore in his speech in Geneva reiterated
the US position via free trade.It is just a matter of
time!

Remember many of the write offs were related to
the disolution of John Morrell.In addition due to the
change in their european quota excess transportation and
other related costs were written down.Also as you know
farming is a business of unknowns.I am not trying to say
these guys are great managers.They have a chance at
yearend 1998 to clean up the balance due to the Hurricane
--let us hope they do it wisely.I am sure we have all
seen that the US got their way at the WTO.they knew
that the EU would exercise the arbitration clause but
the trade sanctions can go into effect in marchI
maintain that the EU just wants to give the ACP countries
the better selling season this year before they
fold.Their was a quote by a Jamacian agricultural minister
that pointed out that 45% of banana growers have
dropped out in the last 18 months because of the WTO
ruling.Earnings this year will be incredibly strong even with the
new quotas not starting until July 1.The stock price
of DOLE has been steadily moving up over the last
two weeks.Just hang in there alittle longer.

Dear Chiquita-watchers,

For those that
wish to brush up on the past 5-6 years happenings in
the trade, visit the following web site and run a
search on "chiquita /
bananas":

www.fruitnet.com/eurofruit/

I just discovered this one and not yet fooled
around on it too much -- if anyone stumbles along
something interesting, please make a posting so that all
can share in the bounty.

I've also unearthed
and am now working on securing the "Mother of all
Banana Resources" for our merry band -- more to
follow.

Ah, Those poor Del Monte people -- no one's posted a
message there since January 9th. Chiquita watchers are
#1.

I wish you the best of luck on your purchase. All
in all, I do believe that you will come out ahead on
the deal. I am just afraid that you won't come out as
far ahead as you imagine.

I do truly hope that
I am wrong, as I hold a large (large to me anyway)
position, and would be ecstatic if it indeed go to the
moon.

As I have said, your arguments are sound, the
indicators are indeed pointing in our favor. The only thing
that scares me is the unknown of the B/S. As I reread
the previous years, quarters announcements I am
amazed at the continual use of the phrases "unusual
charges" and "costs related to repositioning of core
production assets".

That is code for writing off bad
sh*t. If that is over, or at least less than the upside
coming to us from volume and pricing improvements, then
we shall all profit.

Once again, best of luck
on your shares.

Let's be sure to keep up the
discussion as our investments rise

As we all know there are no banana
futures.However the people at the USDA are extremely helpfull.I
asked them for pricing information and volume
information for each week from Nov.15 to the present
1999/1998 versus 1998/1997.Guess what---volume is down and
prices are up sharply in every market around the
world.It does not take a genius to figure out that volumes
are not going to increase any time soon,which would
lead a conservative man to conclude the price trend
will continue.Therefore I have purchased 32000 shares
of CQB to back up my analysis.This is called an
investment opportunity and the idea is to buy the stock
before it goes up in price.I like to invest in
situations where I know something about what I am doing.I
spent several years at United Brands and the above is
my analysis.If you can come up with a scenario that
will make the bananas grow back faster in
Honduras,nicaragua,guatamala and Equador then you win.I also have the wildcard
on my side that CQB wins with the EU,small Caribbean
producers go out of business and the supply situation
tightens more.P_lease do me a favor and short some shares
so I can watch you scramble in the spring!

Pastemp -
Those are spot prices, not future
prices. I am not convinced that the recent uptick is
assured going forward. Apparently, there are those who
agree with me, given the general direction that CQB
stock has been moving.

I posted a while back that Paz was new to the
company and that his purchases were probably due to
either options upon his arrival, or his first foray into
the company stock. Remember, he has not been with CQB
long (+-2years). The big question is, has HE bought
more recently, or as I posted a while back, was that
first batch enough to satisfy him for a
while.

If he is still buying, take that as a big vote of
confidence, if not, it probably only means that he is getting
enough of it through the various ESOP, 401K plan
vehicles available to employees, and doesn't feel the need
to go on the open market.


As for Carl,
well, no one responded to my comments previously, so I
can't really judge why the investment. Again, I
question where and how those purchases were made. Was any
of it options? Board compensation? A buyout of
another individual's position. Please note that most of
the Australians who got stock for their sale to CQB,
promptly opted out. Again, that may not mean
anything.

Remember that the controlling interest hasn't changed, but
any change in the percentages of ownership (direct or
indirect) does have an impact on whether CQB is
consolidated on the books of AIG, which has certain politik
implications to Carl's empire. Any purchase of shares should
be viewed as a neutral without further
information.

Not trying to be too cynical, but just playing
abogado del diablo.

However, I am not selling now. It's truly too
close to the end of the game.

I would love to be
proven wrong, because I'll eat crow as long as I have a
huge gain, which is what will happen if it does turn
around.

Again, I can see the same things you do, and agree with
you on your analysis. I see those box prices and I
can do the math. The profits are there for FY99. I
just have too much experience with those gringos in
Cincy to know what they are liable to pull out of their
sleeves. That said, I also think I know how the market
will react to that news, so I see a somewhat tempered
movement in the stock. However, I am not selling at 9 1/2.
If it does drop any lower, then I will buy it by the
boatload, say 9 or God forbid 8 1/2.

The top line
will be there, I'm just worried about what is left to
fall to the bottom line.

Still keeping the
faith, but guardedly skeptical.

In a inarticulate way you have said it
all.Bananas are a commodity pure and simple.In the case of
CQB let us call it a branded commodity.Cqb gets a
small premium for its product in the marketplace
because of the Chiquita Logo.But at the end of the day
this business is driven purely by supply and demand
and the cycle is turning in our favor for all the
reasons I have previously mentioned.The quality of
management will not impact earnings over the next several
years.They should focus on getting the best deal possible
eith the EU and keep those cash registers hummingTo
CQBHolder I think it is time for you to sell.If after all
thesyearsyou can not see the convergence of several positive
forces at this time then your vision is permanently
clouded.