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iShares Silver Trust Message Board

  • silver_coroner silver_coroner Jan 21, 2010 3:10 PM Flag

    I warned you bagholders


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      "The entire world is engaged"

      Some comments about this kind of attitude.

      1. Patience my friend.
      2. Agreed on manipulation as being a big reason, but 'the harder and deeper you push a ball under water, the greater the intensity it pushes back with once the grip is released. So just because manipulation has worked for these years, if you believe it will work for much longer, then that is naive.
      3. The countries of the world that are engaged in this kind of behaviour(buying our dollars) KNOW very well they are playing a dangerous game of musical chairs, and have said so openly. They cant withdraw suddenly either, they will be left holding a larger bag. Don't think they are stupid.
      4.Those countries that are doing the same(spend, print, spend, print) like India, UK, Italy, Greece are going to also see their currencies lose value. Hence the countries that havent played the printing press game (canada, Australia being on the top) will see their currency do very well over the next decade or so.

      In conclusion what Blondie is saying (and i have been saying), and so are many others, Physical should be added at all price levels, more so when the prices are down.

      On the other hand, Gld, Slv, Miners, etc can be traded when the visibility is fairly obviously bearish (like has been for 2-3 weeks). Look at my earler posts, i (as a result of interfacing with some smart currency traders) have been fairly confidently predicting a strong dead cat bounce of the USD, and hence a sharp decline in PM prices.

      Gold is manipulated, and is emotionally traded (a lot of very smart people, tow the illogical line 'gold is a barbarous relic' ). But currencies do follow technicals relatively more strongly than PM(IMO), and should be consulted for the purpose of inferring the fate of Precious Metal prices.

    • What you just described was FUNDAMENTALS. For now, inflation is held in check NOT due to other countries buying our debt as an investment, but due to the fact that export countries such as China and Japan continue to correlate thier currency to our dollar. CHINA has pegged their currency perfectly to the dollar to keep export prices high for them low for us. This cannot last forever,as China has already signaled they will begin to decouple soon. Your thesis is too simplistic to say the least.

    • Point by point.

      1. You must not have started buying gold below $800.


      2.You were never convinced we had severe economic problems.

      Incorrect. I know for a fact that we are in very very very deep shit.

      3.You never bought gold because fundamentally, our country was/is showing all sings of an impending economic decline : rapidly expanding money supply, failing companies, bursting of a huge real estate bubble, dumping of USD as a reserve currency by many nations, record debt, etc.

      Incorrect. I bought gold and silver and oil futures EXACTLY because of the fundamentals.

      4.You bought gold just because someone who sounded smart recommended.

      Incorrect. Peter Schiff's podcast pointed the way, but I did my own research. Read a LOT of Murray Rothbard and Ludwig von Mises.

      What you morons fail to realize is that FUNDAMENTALS DO NOT MATTER HERE. Austrian economics applies to closed economic systems. There's not a tremendous amount written by the Austrians about cases in which an entire planet of external economies is dumb enough to perpetually import a single economy's inflation. The fact is that we are creating massive, massive inflation, but every dollar of it gets exported to China, the UK, the ECB, the JCB, Russia, the Saudis, etc. The entire world is engaged in an endless orgy of supporting our profligate lifestyles, and they get off on it. These people will buy dollars no matter what. And if they have too many dollars, they'll buy treasuries.

      All we do is consume - all they do is produce. If they haven't learned their lesson yet, they NEVER WILL. They are truly that stupid. They are like a battered housewife who takes it day after day after day with a smile on her face, and NEVER leaves.

      I base my position not on fundamentals, but on the realization that fundamentals do not, and never will, matter. The world is populated by slavish, obsequious idiots who suck the cock of The United States no matter what, without question.

      People like me understand the fundamentals, but we also understand market psychology. We understand that the US has the rest of the world under a "spell", for want of a better word. We even have nations like Japan, who sit atop well over a trillion dollars worth of dollar-denominated reserves. They are facing a HUGE demographic crisis, a HUGE debt crisis of their own. You'd think they would do the rational thing and sell some of their reserves to help their own interests. Do they? NOPE. Their entire nation will fall back to second world Feudal Japan without selling a single bond, bill, note, or dollar. Not only this, but any time the DXY starts sinking, they actively UNDERMINE their own currency! Holy shit! Rational people DO NOT DO THIS. The world is not rational. They haven't been, and won't be. Japan is but one example. Every other nation on earth will follow suit, including China. They will buy dollars FOREVER, and sit on them FOREVER, no matter what domestic economic threats they face.

      The last few weeks ought to make this VERY obvious to anyone paying attention.

    • You are correct that is for sure. However we will have this same problem at $15 silver and $975 gold in a month or so. It is what it is, manipulation. So wait for lower prices and buy like the crooks do.

    • Well said....I still think we get one last big correction in gold/silver....either way I will not sell my physical holdings. I'm going to wait at least few months before adding though. BTW, I started buying gold/silver...more than 6 years ago....:)

    • If any of you (frustrated with Gold) thought prices would go on a straight line, you are to blame.

      Having said that, NOTHING has changed with the situation of our bleak economic future.

      Just because the balance in the Senate tilted a bit, does not mean the Republican Congress-folks will let any kind of short term pain(a bunch is headed our way) hit our country, since that is political suicide.

      When we get signs of fever(companies/state govts,etc falling apart, China stopping buying our paper, inflation creeping in), Congress (of blue/red kind) will PRINT more money, and announce more bailouts, you can take that to the bank.

      Our story has just started unfolding. The bottom is still years away.

      $14+ trillion in debt.

      No manufacturing (relative to a $13 trillion GDP), and none being planned.

      Real Estate bubble being re-inflated through Fannie/Freddie, low interest rates; you can still buy a house for zero down, after rebates, etc.

      Real GDP, down (not the reported GDP). Real unemployment 20% range.

      Tax revenue for State/city governments way down. States are going to start falling apart sometime in June.

      Starbucks reported awesome earnings. Does that not tell you Americans have NOT stopped spending foolishly?

      What has changed this week? Nothing.

      Therefore, the current declines are just a dead cat bounce of the USD, and PM taking a breather. Possibly even a small correction.

      If you are giving up on gold just after a $150 dollar decline from the top then:

      1. You must not have started buying gold below $800.
      2.You were never convinced we had severe economic problems.
      3.You never bought gold because fundamentally, our country was/is showing all sings of an impending economic decline : rapidly expanding money supply, failing companies, bursting of a huge real estate bubble, dumping of USD as a reserve currency by many nations, record debt, etc.
      4.You bought gold just because someone who sounded smart recommended.

      The believers will see wealth preservation. Those capitulating, will flock to fiat, and lose it all.

      Your choice.

      BTW, those that still believe, besides oppurtunities to buy PM at lower prices, don't ignore oppurtunities to buy CAD, AUD at bargain prices also. There are many ways, FXC, FXA are some of them


    • could be 1500 by next friday

    • Just like in 2000 and in 2006?
      Laugh is on you!

    • Thanks for the warning. Now go help your mamma clean your star war figurines.

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