Yes there is a shortage. A HUGE shortage in the $28-$30 range. The deep thinkers who sold short because they didn't want to take profits and sell outright have to buy to cover before the mid east blows up this weekend.
IMO the "shortage" is really the relationship between the metal and claims against it. By which I mean the huge short position being 10 times the actual store of the metal - whether it be the Comex, the ETF or where ever. I know it's a stretch, but it's analogous to the amount of paper/digital dollars out there looking for redemption in gold. There just isn't enough available for sale (redemption) - AT THE CURRENT PRICE. And that's the problem. There have been so many money substitutes created to "own" the metal indirectly, rather than physically. All the anecdotal info about supply at big dealers or your local coin shop or jeweler may or may not be useful on a given day, but the REAL supply problem is at the derivative level. THAT is where the "shortage" is.
Here's what's going on. There is a silver SUPPLY SHORTAGE right now--yes. There is no shortage of silver in the earth that is yet to be mined just like there is no shortage of oil in the earth that needs to be pumped.
This current supply shortage will have a massive input on the price here as it will spike easily to $75 and possibly higher this year. In fact $65 by summer is highly likely.
Forget all the Hunt Brother's history and all that you heard. Look at what is going on RIGHT NOW!
The RCM mint is having problems and parts have broken down. They are also having trouble securing silver due to much demand at the moment. The U.S. mints are having similar problems but interestingly the U.S. mints are running increasingly lower on U.S.A. mined silver. By law U.S.A. mined silver is required in American Eagles and that may force them to be discontinued soon enough or make a new coin.
This silver is going up. Consider this the bottom now.