Two ways this could play out, neither of which are good for ever-upward silver prices:
1. SLV actually owns and is holding epic amounts of physical silver in vaults to back all the shares they've sold. If this was true - if there really is _that_ much physical silver sitting in vaults, it represents an immense global glut of the substance for which there is no reasonable industrial consumer.
2. SLV has been selling paper with no silver behind it. They're a fraud. Everyone _flees_ the silver commodity market selling anything that looks like a piece of paper with the word silver written on it. SLV doesn't attempt to belatedly fill vaults with physical silver because they're already headed to jail - why spend billions when you're just going to be in a cell?
You should do a bit more reading. Diamonds were at a premium in Germany as WWII came to a close and various individuals needed small portable wealth to carry out of the country as they fled from what they'd done.
Silver? Even at today's prices, a year's salary is going to rip the bottom out of the strongest backpack you can find as you attempt to hike towards a neighboring neutral country.
In the 1940's the price of silver was in the range of 45 cents per ounce to around 85 cents per ounce. You did look it up.... right?
why bother, just buy all the slw you can. slv goes up, you win big or slv goes way of the madoff, you win the powerball. slw can be optioned unlike physicals. don't wait a day longer.
imagine halted slv, and slw pending news... then slv reopens at 3 bucks and slw at 180... i know it sounds crazy, but my assumptions are not without merit.
i think comex is in more trouble than slv. i think slw is a no-brainer. if either comex or slv defaults, silver goes up 10 times to 500 bucks. silver bars will be auctioned off at christies or sothebys as collectibles like fine wine. slw will go up 100 bucks in one day. slw is pure silver play... no surprises from comex, slv defaults, no worries about owning fake bars or storing massive amount of physical.
If any of the major Silver exchange-traded funds turns out to have been selling hollow pieces of paper, the silver market will _crash_ as everyone who's not holding physical bars of metal in their hands dumps their holdings in an effort to get out before their pieces of paper are proven equally worthless.