With the Saudis releasing much more oil and with the economy getting worse, and with the global economic slowdown in progress, nothing could sustainably move/keep oil prices above $100 right now. Oil prices are likely heading back to the $70's (and lower for a while) and that will make silver dip to the $teens as most commodities will fall with oil.
It will likely look something like this:
Oil $100 - $105 = Silver $35 - $39
Oil $95 - $99 = Silver $31 - $37
Oil $90 - $94 = Silver $27 - $33
Oil $85 - $89 = Silver $24 - $30
Oil $80 - $84 = Silver $21 - $26
Oil $75 - $79 = Silver $18 - $23
Oil $70 - $74 = Silver $16 - $21
Oil $65 - $69 = Silver $14 - $19
Oil $60 - $65 = Silver $12 - $16
Oil $55 - $59 = Silver $11 - $14
Oil $50 - $55 = Silver $10 - $13
Oil $40 - $50 = Silver $9 - $12
Oil $30 - $40 = Silver $8 - $10
I'm not bashing silver. I love silver (have done so for over 40 years). I'm just trying to be smart about it. It's smart to buy silver on the BIG dips, the coming BIG dip will take us to the low $20's and $teens. I don't think oil will go lower than $55 and I don't think silver will go much lower than $12-$14.
It could look something like this forward looking view of silver (long term bullish even though we've got more huge crashes coming soon)
25% of normal volume and silver continues to be saying that it can't stand $36.00 or higher because $35.xx is the ceiling.
Only simpletons would pay $36 for silver when its cap is essentially $35.xx
99.9% of folks are saying "I'll wait until silver is sub $30 before I decide how low i'll wait to buy. All smart folks are waiting for $24 and under, most smart folks are waiting for $22 and under, the really smart folks are waiting for $18 and under.
"99.9% of folks are saying "I'll wait until silver is sub $30 before I decide how low i'll wait to buy. All smart folks are waiting for $24 and under, most smart folks are waiting for $22 and under, the really smart folks are waiting for $18 and under."
Yup, I am pretty certain that you are not saying this to try to fool anyone. You are saying it to fool yourself, to dull the pain of the ZSL losses...
Over $50 in January...now under $18. It hurts, but until you can face the reality, you cannot move on (and save whatever money you have left). You are currently relegated to soothing your pain via fantasy ravings on a message board.
When you were a kid, did you ever think this is who you would grow up to become?
Why can't silver go much higher?
Because it won't go higher unless oil goes higher, and oil can't go higher because higher oil will kill the economy even faster, causing an even deeper commodities sell-off.
Any bad, but "better-than-expected" economic news that we get (like the bad retail news we got today that was promoted as "better than expected"), just emboldens the commodity speculators to push oil/commodities higher and that just makes the economic situation worse and that kills commodity demand and makes commodities fall.
So we're stuck until the speculators finally give in and sell-off commodities down to economically sustainable price levels.....
We need oil in the $60's - $70's to get the economy restarted and that puts silver in the $teens.
Silver is running out of steam.... You only get so many attempts to break through the $35.xx ceiling and then you're going to run out of steam and head much lower
All this talk of silver being essentially stuck at $35.xx with a ceiling of $35.xx must be bad for silver volume. No one wants to buy just to sit around and wait for the next leg down of the big downtrend. It's no fun paying $36 for something with a $35.xx ceiling.
Silver had 25% of normal volume today. It seems like the only good volume these days is on HUGE selloff days.
I understand your logic. Probably correct, however, it is a Whole New World post TARP and all other Chaos out there.
Ag supply is being snapped up every fall in spot. Becareful on the dips as they may not last too long. Paper traders are or have the ability to buy in and out. Physical owners tend to hold forever ( or when they absolutely need to sell some)
So, for Physical Buyers, if your long term bullish in your thinking, just know this, IMHO, Silver at 35 or 18, these are low prices when compared to it possibly going to 75-150 an OZ. So if gauge availability when prices fall, go get it, pull the trigger, set a number and Buy!! or Else you will pay these levels are higher if you wait too long.
Silver is NOT being snapped up.
These bars have been sitting here largely unsold for a long time. There are more of them now than there were 3 months ago
Those who spend all their money buying at these high prices, will have 1/2 as much silver as the guy who waits for lower prices and they will feel sick about buying so high when they lose 50% of their capital.
The folks who buy low, will always love their silver, even in future crashes.
I've got some $5.00 silver that offers me real protection in all sorts of scenarios... even if silver has a mega-crash, I'll be fine
Imagine the guy who bought at $50.... I'll bet he doesn't feel very "protected" right now.
There's a 99.9% chance we go to $25 or lower and a 99% chance we go to $19.99 or lower
This is what is sensible.
"Yesterday, crude oil was seen as a bit of a safe haven but today it has lost its luster, so investors are turning to gold," said Eric Zuccarelli, an independent copper trader. Fear and uncertainty in the markets generally prompts investors to put their bets in gold and silver."
Fear and uncertainty will prevail for a long time going forward as the world fiat paradigm exacerbates it's decline. Wars will intensify as well.