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iShares Silver Trust Message Board

  • keybotthequant keybotthequant Dec 2, 2011 9:06 AM Flag

    Silver Daily and Weekly Charts

    Daily Chart:

    Silver price is moving out sideways thru a symmetrical triangle, now at the apex, so price has to decide which way to commit. The vertical side of the triangle is about 8 bucks so the move will be significant. A break out from the top rail at 33 would target 33+8 = 41. A collapse thru the bottom rail at 32 would target 32-8 = 24.

    Note the decreasing volume participation over the last few months conflicting with continuous media stories about high demand. The sideways triangle patterns can exhibit fake out moves at about the two-thirds distance across the triangle, so the breakout above the top rail in early November was suspect, then, sure enough, price retreated back inside the triangle and collapsed out the bottom rail. Typically this move results in price failure, but, price recovered and tucked itself back up inside the triangle again. Thus, here price sits and it must decide now.

    Price is between the 20 and 50 MA's so use that as an indication of committment as well, either up thru 33.23, or, down thru 32.56. The 200 day MA is flattening out which indicates that price is running out of gas. Watch the RSI, stochastics and money flow 50% levels for indications on price committment. Projection is for failure out the bottom of the triangle and lower prices moving forward.

    For silver charts use search box above for keystone speculator.

    Will try to post the weekly chart commentary as well in the next post.

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    • Good Post... Nice to see a reasonable post without all the BS and hype...

    • Here's the weekly chart.

      Lots of interesting things to look at on this long term silver chart. The red lines show the negative divergence and rising wedge that slammed price in 2008, silver falling from 22 to 8, or 64%. The price bubble top in 2011 was popped by the CME raising margin requirements. Note that negative divergence did not occur for silver at the 2011 top, sans stochastics.

      The pink boxes highlight the tops over the last eight years. The tops were motoring along at 2-year-ish intervals but the 2008-2009 crash created the recent three-year interval between peaks. Thus, an assumption is made that the trend will return or at least resume the expected cycle so another peak should come in a year or two. If we just finished the 3rd wave up, we are heading lower to build a base for the final 5th wave up. In a couple year time frame, this price move could easily correlate with expected hyperinflation. The quandry is that the majority of traders expect the hyperinflation to occur any day now (due to money printing) and the next peak in price to occur any day now as well. Keystone thinks it will be further off, at least a year or two, perhaps more.

      If silver corrects 64% from 50, using 2008 as a fractal, price would drop 32 bucks off the top to target 18. Price could retrace to the 12-20 area and few people expect that--the market always has a way of surprising the greatest number of people. The teal trend line over the last three years is important. Price now moving across the sideways triangle ready to decide on a direction. The orange lines exhibited positive divegence that helped price bounce in October but note the downward-sloping dark blue lines that want lower prices moving forward. Projection is for lower prices for the weeks and months ahead, initially moving downwards to 25 as we move into 2012.

      For silver charts, and gold charts as well, use search box above for keystone speculator.

    • great post thanks!

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