so far that looks like a bottom, silver needs to finish up today with a huge follow through rally from my experience that was a throw in the towel bottom ( down 4%) met by serious buying so far. Actual Silver needs to breaks above that 20.10 level which should let it break out of the long term down trend its been in. This all makes sense to me, tax loss selling is over today and money mangers should be putting some money in gold/silver for 2014. I'm looking for a 20-25% gain in silver in the first part of 2014, it could go either way after that, but I think with Indias buying binge, the photovoltaic pickup theres been, the silver coin binge and the electronics craze silver could surprise to the upside with a supply shortage. It wouldnt surprise me to hear that an electronics and solar makers start to purchase silver in bulk just to hedge their manufacturing costs. Not to mention the unknown like china imploding, japan/chinese war or inflation starting to rear its head. Heres a theory I have I havnt heard anyone talk about yet. The recent good news coming out of the US economy is a one off. Could it be that anyone that was looking to purchase a new home realized rates were rising as rushed to purchase causing the housing number to look like were really taking off? How about the tax credits given to company for manufacturing that ends in 2013, is it possible that company's made more stuff to take advantage of that credit which made GDP look like were taking off? My point is maybe instead of tapering like everyone is thinking they keep bond purchases where there at or possibly buy more devaluing the dollar.
i only skimmed this post because it was far too long. but, I think the risk/reward on silver is heavy on the reward side. been trading precious metals since 2007, when the fed started easing, and I've pretty well played it perfectly on both sides. I only short sell the leveraged garbage, so I'm not a multi millionaire or anything, but I'm self employed now!