Swiss, on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the most confidence, how sure are you that Echelon will go below $10 in the next 6 months? Have you factored in the signing of a substantial contract in that time?
I have found that the best way to make a decision on something of relative importance is to gather as many views as possible, then eliminate those that have no logic behind them. Elonverylong is an example of a person who I would not listen to. Why? Because he suffers from irrational exuberance. If Swiss tells me he is sure that Echelon is going under $10, but cannot give me any logical reason why, I will place his input in the same file as elonverylong. So far, swiss has been more accurate than elonverylong. Luck? Maybe. But, I am not so narrow minded that I won't even listen to opinions.
You haven't made any buy decision since 2001... and now you want to buy. This sound not soo good. You see, 2003-2005 were the best years to start a new position.
Based on that I will give you a piece of advise: 1) Pay back your debts and get rid of your CC 2) Have at least 2-3 months of your salary in cash 3) Check your insurances, do your have the right ones? 4) Invest in yourself 5) Give money to charites/poor on regular basis 6) Can you "invest" and save tax? Do it first 7) Go and see the world. You may be dead tomorow... (I would add "buy a house" to the list).
Now, if you still have money left... 8) you must know your edge. Do you know your edge? No? Go back to #4 9) You must concentrate on "avoid loss" & "diversify" 10) And the last and most important "BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH"
You will do much better for the next 10 years than most people on this message board if you dollar average your "investments", let's say every 3 months:
30% MSCI Global ETF (50% is USA) 30% Jim Rogers International Commodity Index 20-30% Swiss government bonds 20-10% Inflation-Adjusted Treasury Bonds
After 2010 we will see huge problems: peak (cheap) oil, hyper inflation, dollar collapse, baby boomers, much more war, climate changes, clash of civilizations/religions, etc. BUT don't missunderstand me! This means "change"... and you can make a lot of money during change periods...
NOW, back to your question: - Even if ELON makes money... ELON will go down. It was the case after 2000 and it will be the case again. - 1 substantial contract is not enough - Confidence? I will keep my shorts at least for the next 11 months. I don't care if ELON goes back to $22 or not. I WILL NOT COVER! I don't know any thing about short squeeze. - ELON's target for 2008 is: avoid a loss!
Swiss, if you actually practice what you preach, then you are not a bad guy at all. I have been very fortunate in my life, so the money that I put into the market is all money that I can afford to lose. I am puzzled why you think Echelon will go down even if they report a profit AND sign a major deal. I realize the market was out of control when we went to $32 last year, but that run was based on triqals alone. If they lock up one major deal, doesn't that signal that the technology is a success and others will follow suit? I don't expect it to go to $32, and I realize a lot of money has flowed out of stocks, but it doesn't make sense that it would drop below $10. Having said that, I am going to wait for the CC, because if they failed to turn a profit as expected, then $10 is very possible.