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Echelon Corporation (ELON) Message Board

  • scion5 scion5 Sep 7, 2011 11:27 AM Flag

    Last chance to buy under $8...ever

    OK..OK...we've all either heard it or said it before, I know. But, this present global market drop will offer ELON investors the last opportunity to get in under $8. ELO will begin to register sales to it's 55 Million customers in Brazil soon. Within year Holley will implement the "Echelon Inside" meters in China's two huge market share utilities in China, China State Grid and China Southern. Larger EU members Germany, France, Spain and Great Britain will begin some roll outs. Next couple of earnings and CC's will confirm upper range of 30-40% growth.
    First upturn will of course coincide with EU and USA getting their financial worries off front page to back page stories. Market up- tick from there. Not that anything will really "be" solved, but at least it won't be the big story line every day. So, though I picked a controversial Topic header, playing devils advocate, especially given recent market and ELON declines, I am confident, given all we know of Echelon's 18 month future, that indeed this present pullback is the last good opportunity to get ELON under $8. That does not mean "todays" market, but the general time frame of the market bottom...might be next month or so. That I can't predict...neither can Warren Buffet or CNBC analysts or goldman sachs. So, "somewhere" down here at these depressed prices...IT'S A BUYING OPPORTUNITY! I think most of this board are probably pretty well "all in" by now with their allocated ELON funds, as I am, so this is not a call to arms for buying...just a conversation about my observation of current and future prices.

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    • Picked up some more today - under $8 is a very nice gift. Shorts will be covering soon IMHO.

    • If they had something booked, they would announce it. I have no doubt that they "anticipate" ELO using NES, and they "expect" revenues to come in 2012. But expectations and anticipation won't move the stock. Announcing a contract with ELO for 10 million meters with revenues of 100 million dollars will move the stock.

    • John I completely disagree that ELO is potential. Listen to the last call. Stanfield says they will be on the revenue board with Duke and Eltel and the few others they break out as big revenue generators. Stanfield is very conservative. This isn't collaboration. They have something booked or they wouldn't commit to Non GAAP profitability next year either. How the hell are they going to get there without ELO? They don't have anything else coming online that's definitive.

    • You need to keep this in mind:

      The "holley metering news" is relatively recent. So even if you take that out of the equation and pretend for a moment that it doesnt exist, the stock price still stinks beyond belief.

      So now you add the "holley potential" and it makes the price stink even more.

      My point is that "nothing" seems to ever pull the trigger here, and its really baffling.

      Johnmr, I think youre the guy who hit the nail on the head. ELON prices will rise WHEN they make a profit.

    • The market isnt convinced that ELO and Holley will be doing large scale rollouts using NES. Right now, it's just "collaboration". There is no way to factor in revenues when everything is still so vague. Trust me, if ELO announces a rollout to all their customers using NES, the stock wont be under 8. Same with Holley. All we have is "potential" revenue. So, the question to ask yourself is, Do you think ELO and Holley will find Echelon technology to be the best available, and therefore implement full scale rollouts? If you do, then the price today is a steal compared to what it will be after the rollouts begin. If you don't, then you may want to get out the next time it rises briefly with the markets.

    • $7.82 now

      This stock is a freaking curse

    • chap11

      You know when I read your posts, I realize Im not alone. And their is a legion of "us" out there.

      BUT, we all know as individuals, the day we sell, the next day ELON takes off. Why and how things work that way, I dont understand. It's just that they do.

      It's really been a very joyless ride, and its lasted WAY to long.

    • This stock is garbage. I've been able to stave off losses from trading it so frequently but the loss of time energy resources and a possible other winner is incalculable. I've been here a long time and I am about to capitulate and get the f@@k out of this POS. I can't take it anymore. The relative underperformance when the NASDAQ is up 75 and then gives back all the gain on a down 10 day is beyond sickening.

    • "... last opportunity to get in under $8. ..."

      I hope so, too, all the way up to $9.4, please!

      "... ELO will begin to register sales to it's 55 million customers in Brazil soon. ..."

      I read about these 55+ million customers of ELO and its partnership with ELON, which is very exciting, and perhaps will lead to the highly anticipated pop. But, ELON's major press releases on this subject about two years ago seem quite fluffy though. Although there is some insinuation in these PR's about the possibility of a real strike, I am still not convinced yet (apparently, like the investment firms) that ELON could possibly get all or a major share of these 55 million meters. I am wondering if there is "sort of" unambiguous information out there, beyond Echelon PR's, which indicate that ELON would indeed get a contract for 55, 20, or whatever million meters within say the next two years? Any Link? Obviously, ELO partners with others, too, such as eMeter, who ELO apparently chose in April as its smart meter information management partner; but I admit I am far away from understanding the nature of these partnerships, what is marketing and what is real, and how these systems could integrate with Echelon.

      My fear is that an initial order of 1 million meters would not get us too far with regard to the PPS.

      I am just doing my (kind of) DD and trying hard to remain a critical voice ... truly wishing you are right and that it turns out I am just a Negative Nellie.

      • 1 Reply to dolphinooo
      • dolphinooo.. Boy, I wish for more insight too. I do know that when Echelon showcased EcOS platform that E-Meter was one of the companies praising it's virtues. From the initial press we got, I don't believe it was a "fluff" announcement. It was a firm commitment by ELO to license technology and buy key hardware from Echelon to produce meters for sale to it's 55 million customers. I do not believe it means all 55M will absolutely be getting these new meters or that it will all happen in "short order". But both ELO and Echelon were clear that they would be selling them by end of 2011. So, taking management's time frame, without any facts to contrary seems reasonable, albeit the required investors hint of doubt as always.

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