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Echelon Corporation (ELON) Message Board

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  • johnmr12 johnmr12 Nov 14, 2011 2:35 PM Flag

    Brazil, ENEL prospects..

    Don't count on it. I have been reading about the European debt crisis more thoroughly, just to try and understand why Echelon is where it is. Frankly, the vast majority of "experts" think European countries are going to default like Dominoes, one after the other. Greece, then Italy, then France, and on and on. Since Echelon is so heavy in Europe, no fund managers want to touch this stock. Couple that with the fact that it appears the smart grid may be postponed here in the US due to lack of funds and so many unanswered questions, I think most analysts are trying to figure out where Echelon is going to generate revenue in 2012. Now, ELO isn't in Europe, but it's still possible that a major European meltdown will impact South America as well. I really don't know how impacted China will be by a European crisis, but based on the 2 year period for ELO to even begin a pilot, it would follow that Holley won't be ready for another year. That is why Echelon is where it is, and shorts are in control. The ONLY thing that will move this stock, other than a miraculous turnaround in Europe, is if they ship SIGNIFICANT orders. I dont mean 10,000 ELO meters, I mean 10 MILLION.

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    • Echelon has already said they expect no negative impact from Europe at all. The area that hurt them the most back in 2008 was Eastern Europe which is currently one of their targeted hot markets. Enel is going to do what Enel wants, they've saved billions over the years on their smart grid and they are going to upgrade, regardless.

    • 2012 isn't the problem. It's 2013. That's why Duke Indiana was so devastating. It was going to bridge when Ohio ended. 2012 has Duke Ohio and Fortum and one quarter of NRGi still plus the commercial side. 2013 is the black hole if there are delays in ELO.

    • ENEL is the only hope for a quick turn because their go to market time would be the least with their prior dealings. Stock options set for the new CFo at 5.53

      • 1 Reply to chapt11
      • Europe contagion may be the doom-de-jour, but the fact is ENEL secured up to 1 billion euro loan in October for smart grid projects. Even if none of this is being spent on Echelon's technology, it still indicates that smart grid is alive and well in Europe and the ROI is satisfactory for the bank to make the loan.

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