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Echelon Corporation (ELON) Message Board

  • dolphinooo dolphinooo Mar 21, 2012 10:16 AM Flag

    Holley Market Share 2010 (4.33%) and 2011 (4.14%); ~$10 per meter

    Scion5 posted that Echelon could capture 10% of the Chinese smart meter market share with Holley. This shameless individual even noted his estimates were conservative.

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_E/threadview?m=tm&bn=5996&tid=183779&mid=183785&tof=2&rt=2&frt=1&off=1

    >>> 5 years== 28 million meters X $15=$420 million

    This is so wrong.

    Holley’s market share in 2010 => 4.33% market share
    http://www.researchinchina.com/Htmls/Report/2011/6118.html

    Holley’s market share in 2011 => 4.14% market share
    http://www.researchinchina.com/Htmls/Report/2011/6248.html

    I feel sorry for northstarz. He does not have much clue about what he is doing here, and now he has to deal with crooks like Scion5, too. Obviously, this shameless behavior of Scion5 really reflects badly on Echelon.

    Worse, Scionocchio’s nose must have grown one meter when he tried to deceive innocent investors like lonworkcharley with false data indicating Echelon could get $15 per unit from Holley. Charley, I am sorry Scion5 did this to you, too. Man, can you believe that Scionocchio has played this dirty game of deception for more than 10 years now? That sucks.

    Sege confirmed that revenues from Holley will be ~$10 per end point, not $15.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/284892-echelon-s-ceo-discusses-q2-2011-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=qanda

    Benjamin Schuman - Pacific Crest Securities, Inc.
    If I go back and look at it now, I get to about $10 per end point. I guess, a, is that correct? And b, is that a good kind of baseline to start with for Holley with the component relationship there?

    Ronald Sege
    I think that's approximately correct for what we guided to back then. So sort of directionally, with Holley, yes. I mean it's a different world. China is a more competitive place, and it's a slightly different composition than we're offering to Holley than Enel. But I would say you're in the ballpark.

    Echelon is a good company, possibly achieving profitability in 2013. With a subsystem margin of 60%, as Slakey indicated in his Feb 27 speech, profitability is realistic in 2013. Echelon had bad luck with Duke Indiana; otherwise, they would have been profitable in 2012 already. Too bad, but as a potential trader I have to consider this fact. I cannot put my head into the sand like northstarz, who counts the 3126 days since he invested. Nope, I cannot do that. I better put my money into a 5% mutual fund instead of an overly risky direct equity investment.

    Echelon’s indeed a solid company, no question about that, but unfortunately these shameless PUMPsters like scion5 and sf_elon ruin its reputation with their massively inflated PUMPs. I would recommend Echelon to pillory them right in front of their headquarters.

    Dolphin

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    • Huh, reality is we have seen "many" different "numbers" with Holley and ELO, right? Yet you seem incapable of seeing anything but your bashing short point of view. Thousands of articles have been posted and supplied so an idiot like you even can understand that world SmartGrid is going to grow to close to 400 million meters next 5 years and it's obvious Echelon is gaining marketshare since it's recent arrival in the industry,(compared to landis and itron and hundreds of minor legacy meter manufacturers), and with acknowledged best of breed PL technology, complementary global standards with LON business, streetlighting, etc., that they will "in all likelihood" (except to shortbashers), gain in market-share over next 5 years. NOTHING you post has EVER refuted the facts, though you certainly try. Tell your boss I vote for another .2 raise for you for all the effort you put into posting daily, all the while claiming you have "no position" for months on end...LOL. What a turd you truly are.

    • WTF was that? I don't need a book with irrelvant information.

      Can you summarize it?

      I only read the first two sentences and these were already SO WRONG.

      "... that's 2010 marketshare of a "specific" time period tendered bids ..."

      WRONG. 2010 was complete; 2011, AFAIK, was about 80% complete, which is a real good sample, don't you think so.

      "... first posted the number, not you, ..."

      So you ADMIT YOU LIED when you posted your insane 10% market share estimate just recently. And, btw, we need a link please. Thx.


      Sorry, I did not read anything else, I just saw ELO a dozen times protruding from the text. We are talking here about Holley. Summerize your argument and I may respond tomorrow. It's probably some inflated market share number or a LIE anyways.

    • that's 2010 marketshare of a "specific" time period tendered bids..I first posted the number, not you, anyway, long before you ever started bashing on board. Fact is, as we all know, there are a lot of "conflicting" claims and numbers "out there". ELO claims they have first system wide OK from Brazilian regualators...Landis cliams they are first to install smartmeters..itron says they have long history and will be first to market...HUH? Yeah, lots of confusing, contradictory information. But why does dolphin use ONLY use the most negative or unsubstantial information to make a case? This is the ELON board, not itri board. I read MUCH more information than I post, much of it is competitors own claims in press releases or some tech blogger with dubious historical or factual knowledge beyond a couple of hours of "research" to write something to make $100. I we posted every bit of information "not" about Echelon it would seem as if Echelon did not exist. That is not the truth. Echelon is in a large scale battle for global presence. It has done fairly well, but it does have challenges. The Holley and ELO contracts are great to have but the downside is a much smaller profit than if they had a plant and sold their own meter in those countries. Then again, there is no guarantee that itron or landis will have significant revenue or profit from having a plant, (costs money to build, manage, promote,employees, taxs,) which Echelon does not incur by using Holley and ELO established presence in respected countries. Fact is..."WE", meaning ELON board posters, Echelon management, Holley, ELO, analysts, bashers especially, bloggers , researchers and investors DO NOT KNOW what market share Holley will win with Echelon Inside Smartmeters in Chinese marketplace. There are "hundreds" of chinese meter manufacturers,(most not utility meters though), and vast majority will not obviously, get a large market share. So we "know" that arguement is illegitimate. Competition exist across the board, but Echelon has shown ability to "muscle in" to the top echelon of meter manufacturers in a short period of time. It has shown "best of breed" technology over it's competitors. It can be reasonablely "assumed" that they can continue to gain marketshare, without "pumping". The "how much", can change rapidly! That is the reward end of the risk/reward investment in ELON. All this thinking and logic has been layed out long ago by myself and numerous other posters, long before basherboy arrived with his "non-position" bashing. He takes everything "out of context" and not realizing that everything he posts has already been posted and digested for years by board. We are not "new" to risk/reward understanding of ELON as he is, and infers the rest of us are by his severely limited arguments. Now ELON got hammered, unfairly or not, it's a fact and has not given investors a reason to come back in. I have said, personally I do not expect good news until back half of year. I hope for it sooner though. ELO could easily announce a large utility contract today or tomorrow. Basherboy has "zero" information to refute that, period. It can, and will happen. We just cannot say what day it will be. Don't think that makes ELON long investors "pumpers". Conversely, a poster with nothing but negative attacks on Echelon, ELON, ELON longs, any positive article, analyst's upgrade, or company press release AND without a claimed "position" in the stock and posting daily for months on end, can ONLY be seen for what it is,..a sicko basher.

    • Another item from the report that could be considered encouraging is the statement that Foreign PLC technology is superior to Chinese technology, but foreign technology does not work well in Chinese meters. I happen to have a lot more confidence in Echelon's R&D people than I do with the people in charge of the company, so if they should be successful in integrating our technology into their hardware, all of a sudden State grid has a local meter manufacturer with "superior" PLC technology versus local meters with inferior local technology. You don't see an advantage in future bid wins there?

      • 1 Reply to johnmr12
      • As pointed out here repeatedly, the majority of the deployed smart meters in the initial tenders in China are "smart meter ready" meters without the control networking module. Another fact ignored by the short position is the knowledge base of LonWorks by many of the meter manufacturers in China who are winning contracts. This has also been presented in this forum. Lastly, the 100+ meter manufacturers seems odd to use as a negative since there has already been a consolidation in this sector with the PRC nationalizing several companies, again some with LonWorks products and experience going back at least a decade.

        There can be nothing negative interpreted by the China news unless you are insane.

        What seems to be an especially interesting area now is Thailand. Both Mitsubishi and Holley have large factories there. Thailand also has several VARs for the Echelon system. Thailands population (~70 million) is almost 10 million more than Italy.

    • Acually, I think you are not reading the report correctly. That report states that Holley has won 4.13% of the state grid business that has been bid on up to the present time. That doesn't mean that Holley can only capture 4.13% of the Chinese market. In fact, while state grid makes up the largest percentage of the chinese utility industry, there is at least another 20% that they do not control. Holley can get some of that business. I'm not saying they will, but they can. Also, this initial bid process is for a small part of State grids upgrade. If I put on my glass half full face now, suppose Echelon/Holley technology simply blows away those four meter makers that are above Holley. Don't you think State grid is going to favor Holley in the future smart grid deployment? Right now State grid has no idea which meter technology is going to be superior, which is why they have given bids to 10 different manufacturers. I know that link was supposed to be negative to Echelon, but I actually found it very encouraging.

      • 2 Replies to johnmr12
      • "... I think you are not reading the report correctly. ... there is at least another 20% that they do not control. Holley can get some of that business. ... I'm not saying they will, but they can. ..."

        Well, I am ALMOST SURE that Holley will get some of the 20% that's outside the State Grid - possibly in the range of 4% to say 8%. But this changes absolutely nothing about Holley's overall marekt share in the 4% to 5% range. By now, we know that the Chinese market is immensely competitive, and I can't see any reason to believe that this situation would be dramatically different outside the State Grid.

        "... If I put on my glass half full face now, suppose Echelon/Holley technology simply blows away those four meter makers that are above Holley. Don't you think State grid is going to favor Holley in the future smart grid deployment? ...."

        In the case of Holley, how many years did and will it take from the initial contract until Holley goes into full production with Echelon-inside smart meters? Two or Three. Now, there is absolutely no indicator that Echelon will have another such parter in the Chinese UTILITIES sector. If they signed up a second parter, they would need to disclose that to the shareholders. _IMO_, the business relationship with Holley in China will be pretty much exlusive _over the next years_. If you have any more concrete information about additional UTILITIES subsystem partners of the size of Holley, that would be helpful. I'd certainly consider that in my model. These contracts have high margins.

        "... Right now State grid has no idea which meter technology is going to be superior, which is why they have given bids to 10 different manufacturers. ..."

        Sorry, these 10 different manufacturers apparently have around ~30% to ~50 market share (can't recall the right nuber now). The rest goes to smaller manufacturers, according to the links I posted.

        "... I know that link was supposed to be negative to Echelon, but I actually found it very encouraging. ..."

        Good, I've always been saying Echelon's business will generate sustainable profits rather sooner than later, possibly 2013. I think they may go through some turbulent time in 2012, and I hope I can take advantage of this. As regards negativity about Echelon, I am surprised you found ANYTHING that was NEGATIVE in my post. I could not have been more FACTUAL with links than this. My 100% negativity was directed towards those who think that they can inflate every estimate by factors of at least 2 and up to 10.

      • and..I have previously read the numbers dolphindumb refers to, but it is from an article originally referred to tendered bids for 2011 or 2010 only UP to a given date...Reality is, China HAS NO SMARTMETERS OR SMARTGRID as of this moment! The meters referred to are low grade meters and have little to do with what Holley/Echelon will provide.

 
ELON
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