The stats summarize the first four tenders. The SGCC market share data of ~4.33% for 2010 is similar.
"... IIn 2011, the market size of the first four smart meter biddings of SGCC hit 43.911738 million units. ... In terms of the competition pattern, a total of 65 enterprises won the bid for smart meter in the first four biddings of SGCC in 2011. ... Linyang Electronics became the largest smart meter bid winner with a share of 6.48% in the total bidding volume. ..."
The only reason for your question I can find is that you do not trust the source. that is, researchinchina. That would be fair. I do think researchinchina is in the ballbark though. They are publishing these stats the second year. The data seems to come from the State Grid itself. The data does not favor one specific company. In addition, they cover a total number of 43M smart meters, which seems to be the number the State Grid is planning to rollout. So, overall, IMO, this report looks trustworthy.
You may also challenge my conclusions with the argument that these numbers include mostly smart-ready meters, and Holley/ELON will ship real smart meters. But then, according to another rather trustworty source, only 100M meters out of the 280M meters by 2016 will be real smart meters, which reduces the market potential of Holley/ELON quite a bit.
I know, the Chief Pumper Officer of Echelon will immediately respond that Holley/ELON will retrofit the already installed smart-ready meters. Well, it would be very surprsing _TO ME_ if the retrofitting would start immediately at a large scale.
Then, as I said, it would be completely irrational to think that Holley would suddenly switch 100% of their production lines to a different kind of meter. The introduction of Holley/ELON meters will be gradual.
So, if Holley with Echelon-Inside could reach an OVERALL ~4% in _CHINA_ over the next few years, IMO, that would be a great success.