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Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust Message Board

  • eusdond eusdond Mar 21, 2013 5:14 AM Flag

    Is anybody but me

    adding at this price ? I could be wrong but 19% at this PPS looks good to me...

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • that takes guts

    • I am not adding but not selling either. i bought this stock for LT distribuation income flow. Not much has changed there for next 3 years or so. By then you will get more than the crash has taken and then comes the long pay off period. The only way to not lose money on this stock is to hold it and not only will you not lose but you will make some. Not the amount that was hoped for perhaps but even if the overall return is more in the 5% range per year over 20 years right now 5% is good return.

      To buy it now at the 13 dollar price does look good if the distributation is locked in to 2017 you get back a lot of your purchase price in those 3-4 years then the rest will be at most likely 7-9% depending on the price of oil and NG. Risky? Yup but what in the stock is not these days? All stock prices today assume a growth eco world wide and that is in some peoples mind not going to happen. Who knows take a shot.

    • If the trust earns enough to make the subordination threshold payments, this amounts to $10.63 through the first half of 2017. I think it is a good buy at these levels.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to gary_dewbre
      • I calculated distributions through Q3/15 differently - took the numbers from the prospectus and discounted them by 20%, the avg miss from the last three quarters - and used actual #'s for Q4/11 through Q4/12, came up with total distributions of $10.78, 80% return of cash invested at current $13.25 pps. And at this price CHKR is yielding almost 21% - way, way oversold, RSI only 17.

        Darnit, wish I wouldn't have bought what I thought was my final lot on 3/7 - almost can't resist adding more at these panic prices, but don't want to try to catch the proverbial falling knife either - may wait to see a convincing bottom and upturn if I decide to add a bit more, could drop my basis by a buck or more at this price.

    • Bought today at 13.62 x 7500 shares. I'll buy more if this goes lower. Seeking Alpha writers scare people out of their shares but this stocks not going anywhere but up from here. Don't forget Chesapeake Energy could come in and buy a boatload more shares at these levels. Also the fat divvy is getting better each day. Oversold by scared longs. Got more dry power to buy another 7500 shares at bargain basement prices.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Nope. Something smells funny here.

 
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