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Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust Message Board

  • newman1979 newman1979 Mar 23, 2013 3:14 PM Flag

    PV-10 at 2015 prices

    The PV-10prices in the seeking Alfa opinion is based on $90 oil and $4 NG. In 2015,oil at $110 and NG at $8 would lead to a much higher value. As the LNG terminals get built, it will drive NG to a world pricing that is currently much higher than $4. Oil has has a history of going up 10% a year for the last 6 years. Why would anyone think,absent a recession, that oil would not be higher in 2015 than 2013?

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    • "During the three-month production period ended November 30, 2012, total sales volumes and realized oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas prices were lower than initial Trust estimates. This resulted in quarterly income available for distribution of $0.5968 per unit, which is $0.0732 below the subordination threshold. As a result, the distribution per common unit is the subordination threshold of $0.6700 for the quarter. "

      $0.67 X 4 quarters = $2.68 divided by $13.74 per share price on 03/22/13 = 19.5% annual return.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • zcar1 Mar 23, 2013 4:16 PM Flag

      IIRC, CHKR's prospectus assumed an increase in oil prices of 2.5% / year until $120 / b, then constant.

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