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Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust Message Board

  • marklibera marklibera May 15, 2013 6:03 PM Flag

    heading south

    I think the ex-date is still a couple of days away, but it looks like the run-up has ended. SDT and PER had the same action prior to their ex-dates and after their ex-dates the selloffs were significant. I think some have realized what is in store after the ex date and have sold now. Bought some puts today to test my theory.

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    • OK Mark...you called it. today is the 24th....9 days later after everything happened.....so now I want to know your predictions of the bottom or when she stops and turns around....if you don't mind.

      • 1 Reply to grgsvll
      • Don't know. The Seeking Alpha author said fair value was around $14, but the market could always overshoot, especially if the general market sells off. I don't know if this action is caused by hedge funds shorting after the ex-date and then riding it back up once it becomes oversold and closer to the next distribution announcement. Both SDT and PER seem to be going sideways which might mean that there's a standoff until the next set of data comes in. Same probably happens with CHKR.

        But if this runs up again into the next distribution announcement and hits resistance, and things have not improved, I'll look into putting on the same play.

    • Heading North: Silly trader's...oh well......htis trust still has 18 & 3/4 years left to go....and collars on the dividend's till the end of 2017....Lands-Sake....as my mammy used to say! We all of us long's is liable to do very, very well! 2 days till Ex-date & dividend's soon to follar!

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to brilliantstorm
      • Silly buy and hold yield chasing investor. Don't you understand the game with these trusts? Run them up into the ex-date because the "yield" is so large, then crash them down. That 67 cent distribution is coming out of the stock price tomorrow. Then the stops gets hit, followed by a break of technicals. Then I wouldn't be surprised to see a Seeking Alpha negative article. It's a theory, but seems to be working like clockwork with SDT. Is CHKR that much different from SDT?

 
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