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Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust Message Board

  • rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 2, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    Burrrrrrr hear that NG being sucked out of storage

    Our weather is suppose to be down to 14 degrees tonight and 18 was our low before tonight. Having so cold of weather in March is something new for our area. Storage numbers sit at 1348 units of NG as of last week and I believe the next two weeks will pull it down to around 1100. It may even go below 1000 before it starts adding up again. At 1348 it is already lower than any of the last 4 years has seen with 1559 being the storage number in April 14 of 2011 being the closest. IF 2014 pull minus numbers to April 14 it will go well below 1000 units but even if reaches only 1000 that will be a low not seen since Apr of 03 in storage.

    Yes this is winter related but you can't ignore that price of NG will be effected by those storage numbers for several quarters to come with chkr disbursements. Liquids from NG are the single biggest revenue producer in chkr trust and I do not know what effect the price of NG has on liquids but I do see some of the decline in production revenue being offset by higher NG selling price and higher oil price than last quarter.

    Time will tell and how long this cold weather hangs on. The latest Artic front is working itself East which will bring colder temps in the next few days to most of the 2/3 of the US.

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    • End of withdrawal season is clearly going to end with low inventories.
      The interest now turns to summer. To get back to normal inventories by start of next withdrawal season, they need to fill storage at a record rate during the coming injection season. If it starts looking like they are not going to accomplish that then NG could take a further step up in mid summer or so. If you're a NG bull then root for a hot summer. If storage remains well below average through to the end of injection season and start of next winter then there could be real fireworks.

 
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