I too am glad you finally agree that PTTRX outperformed PGOVX beyond just a YTD comparatives evaluation -my original contention. I would have to say we just have different investment objectives. You seem to fearlessly day trade bond funds where I am either in cash, a DJA equivalent or PTTRX. I'm in PTTRX the majority of the time.
To set the record straight, I never disagreed with your YTD analysis. In fact I agreed with you on the YTD comparison but thought it was unfair to cherry pick a short duration period of performance for PGOVX when on the main and due to cap gain distributions (which get excluded in the YTD comparison) PTTRX outperforms PGOVX for periods that go back one year and further to include cap gains. I think you brought the YTD comparison up somewhere in the middle of the dialogue and the post I replied is your first post quoted below. We have been going back and forth on this subject primarily because I disagree with your analysis from your quote:
"It was really a no brainer that the market was going to slow this year. Look at PGOVX--which has done fantastic. I can bash Pimco and Gross, as much as I like him. How could they not see this coming like in 2008?? Even I was posting how wrong Bill Gross was when he called for not holding treasuries, and I got bad comments from it but I was right. How could he not be loaded up with treasuries in this environment and he could be selling those treasuries right now and switching into the riskier bonds he is obviously holding since this fund barely has a positive return this year. Even Mohammed who had interviews in "The Bottom Line" saying to not hold treasuries missed it. If I can call it why can't they??'
You wouldn't possibly have the board believe you would have made a better investment manager than Bill Gross? It wasn't exactly a no brainer-the odds were 50-50. The choice was either go into cash-which he did or maintain his intermediate treasury position-which he didn't. But these are not the same choices available in the long term bond fund.
Explain why you think lawsuits against Allianz and or Pimco are laughable, I'd be interested in your theory. These suits happen all the time. I have a stack of shareholder class action lawsuits to draw my experience from . For example, the WAMU suit uses terms such as artificial inflation per share by period" or the amount the SEC calculates share prices were artificially inflated by mis-represented securities held in the portfolio.
My point is an investment manager's hands are tied insofar as choices for particular investment portfolios go. I find your comment regarding your ability to "call it why can't they" laughable because we were in fact warned about the imminent downturn in intermediate bond funds in the Fall of 2010 by both of the very people you owe some due for managing PGOVX which you tout.
Where is your thanks for PGOVX performance under the magt. of Gross? I have to wonder if you have bothered to go to the Allianz site to read the extensive running commentary prior to 2011 on this very matter by Gross and El Erian. If you had, you would find they predict the coming pratfalls for intermediate bond funds imminent in 2011. Neither directly say "everyone in PTTRX move your money out because all hell is going to break lose next year" we did get advance warning.
As it stands now we both would seem to have something of a problem now that the twist is on and Greece is on the verge of tanking. It sounds as if the Federal Reserve has swapped my intermediate term treasuries for your long-term treasuries and it has ruined the rate of return and face value for both. Anyway of the two choices, PTTRX vs. PGOVX, I think I'm the happier camper trading PTTRX to cash and back (rarely into a DJA equivalent since Oct. 2007.
First of all my name is Joe. My wifes name is Rene. You are tiwisting facts to prove yourself correct. In the first email that I compared PTTRX and PGOVX I did mention ytd. Read the whole post from 25 August 10:09am.
I didn't say you got your clock cleaned. I said PGOVX has beaten PTTRX for ytd. You wanted to argue about divs that were paid in 2010 and start including other years. That means calendar year 2011. Yes longer term PTTRX has done better. PTTRX could have don intermediate treasuries adn performed much better since treauries perform better in a down market. El-Erian did an interview in the May 1 issue of "The Bottom Line' where he stated
"which means the price of already issued treasuries will fall." Regardless of what he said elsewhere this proves my point that PTTRX was positioned poorly going into this downturn. When the market drops treasuries go up and that is how the fund should have been positioned into intermeidate treasuries and the fund would have performed better. I am glad that others have read this and agreed that I was correct vs your comments.
I can agree with your longer term numbers on PTTRX vs. PGOVX. I am glad that you finally agreed with my point on ytd for PGOVX. PGOVX also beats DBLTX if you run the same ytd chart. I have now sold the rest of PGOVX. I will be looking for a high yield fund shortly. I also use MWTRX so I may look at MWHYX/MWHIX of VWEHX. Apart from fixed income I like large cap div stocks. I really like MON for the next few years. (We may have argued but the MON board is full of eco nuts and antisemites.) I fear that the precious metals are played out. We saw them drop in 2008 with the rest of the market.
As I posted yesterday, Bill's into "bad/failing bank acquisitions".
Read it for yourself @ http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bond-giant-PIMCO-closing-in-rb-1507264659.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
Now that I've got some time lets have some fun with your analysis and your comments -not sure about 3-1 verdict.
1. Mr. Rene in his original post never mentioned YTD. As a Result YTD performance was NOT the period I responded to in his original post. Please refer to his original quote and my responses.
2. Mr. Gross in his monthly newsletters to investors warned late in 2010 intermediate bond funds were going to meet unusual headwinds. Mr. Rene would have us believe that he is some sort of genius because "It was really a no brainer that the market was going to slow ...” when if fact Gross & El Erian had already issued the warning well before his post. So Mr. Rene would have us believe he had some amazing financial foresight to foresee the 2011 swap in the relative valuations of PGOVX and PTTRX and Mr. Gross and other investment managers at Pimco were completely oblivious to the dire situation facing intermediate fund investors in the coming year when nothing could be further from the truth.
So exactly where does Mr. Rene get off thinking he has some greater foresight that Mr. Gross lacks when it comes to understanding that long term bond funds were likely to be more profitable that intermediate bonds funds. As I've already stated Bill Gross said as a matter of fact up front to his subscribers well before Mr. Rene made his comment and for those of us involved in bond trading it was certainly no secret.
3. PTTRX is by its nature and constructs an intermediate bond fund. What would Mr. Rene have Mr. Gross do; invest PTTRX intermediate bond monies in PGOVX long term bonds? Such an investment would have been illegal as it is contrary to the stated objectives of both funds. Simply put; if you want to invest in a intermediate bond fund you buy PTTRX. If you want to invest in a long-term bond fund, you invest in PGOVX. You just don't mix the two portfolios up to suit your purpose.
At this point, I just don't know quite what to make of Mr. Rene's comments about "no brainer" and "not to hold treasuries missed it". PTTRX can only be invested in either intermediate bonds or cash or some mix of the two. Much as Mr. Rene and others might want, PTTRX cannot morph into a long-term bond fund and start buying long term bonds just as much as it's restricted from buying gold no matter how good an alternate investment it may be. Can you imagine the lawsuits if the fund strayed from its foundational investment constructs if money were lost by mixing investment strategies it could bring Allianz down.
4. Now to your comment about getting my clock cleaned owning PTTRX instead of PGOVX. This statement is only true for YTD; but then we started off not talking about YTD. Why Oct 2007 - because that's when the crash started and the metric from that point forward are key.
So use charting Yahoo interactive software and plot PTTRX against PGOVX from OCT 2007 to the present not from YTD and you will find PTTRX has cleaned PGOVX's clock for 95% of the period. You should ask yourself do you want to own an equity that only outperforms PTTRX for 8 months or would you rather own PTTRX which has well outperformed PGOVX since the market crash in 2007 and ahead of the DJA by 42%. I went from 3.12M to 4.86M in the duration. Could not have done that with PGOVX. That my friend is a no brainer.
Because it is not the point of this exchange. We are all probably well aware of better equities than either PTTRX or PGOVX. Part of the trouble which causes all the invective is confining the discussion to a comparitive evaluation of one to the other. Bringing other equities into the mix just causes a drift off the original exchange.For example I like gold and Palladium but neither is really part of this discussion. The main point each of is attempting to make is whether one's money is better placed in PTTRX or PGOVX. The problem is a complex multifactorial matrix of variables through time. If you only used data sets YTD PTTRX underperforms but is still positive for the year but not performing as well as PGOVX. If you compare the two against one another for 1,2,3,4,5 years PTTRX wins hands down. I have made more money with PTTRX in the last 5 years than I could with PGOVX. To me that's a "no brainer"
He's building up a short position in bonds while holding corporate longs. If you think your in a bond bubble this fund will hold up well.
I rotated over 50% out of PTTRX it in my 401k into VBMFX, I'm not as bold as Mr. Gross. But I do think he is will be proven right.
Thats the problem with being a contrarian, until your right your under performing. Market can trade irrationally for further and farther than the wildest imagination dreams possible.
The referee says joe is more right than mortem. In fact mortem has had his clock cleaned, PGOVX has creamed PTTRX YTD in yield, capital appreciation and Bill has been on the wrong side of the trade in PTTRX. There is no replay or review policy in effect. The ruling on the screen stands. joe 3 and mortem 0.