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PIMCO Total Return Instl Message Board

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  • postmortem2u postmortem2u Sep 21, 2012 1:14 AM Flag

    I'm getting a little

    Still here - posted a recent comment about Uncle Tizz a few weeks ago.

    Feel recent QE3 where the FED is buying exactly the same MBS's that Gross loaded up on, will eventually all but squeeze the profit margin between issuing tresuries at .23%/day against 4-5% per anum MBS's - the treasury will make a bundle for awhile as will PTTRX. But will eventually present diminishing return in the intermediate - long term. In the meantime since the Total Return Fund is holding the exact equity that the Federal REserve is buying for the next 2-3 years. This presents a cap gain upside potential unlike that which we have seen in the last few years.

    The Federal Reserve has to buy them from someone and maybe PTTRX will sell at a profit. This situation can't last forever but until year's end and since February I've been doing my usual thing trading in and out of PTTRX to cash or equities depending on the circumstances. I'm up about 7% for the year which isn't as well as I've done in the past.

    Current market conditions along with international and the Presidential election have made predicting far more dificult than in 2007. I'll probably be holding now until after the cap gain distribution and December year end dividend as we stand to make at least 2-3% in just the month of December. If all goes south between Europe, the market and the election there is no other place to be than PTTRX as far as I can determine. If everything stays about the same we will slowly climb in NAV to year's end and after that I'm unwilling to commit. So I have no compelling other place to commit money to. -pm2u

    Sentiment: Hold

10.200.00(0.00%)May 27 6:45 PMEDT