concerned about PTTRX running so far so fast. I've been in this fund since 2003 and have been very happy with it. I'm beginning to think it may be about time to move some of the money from here into something else.
Who am I kidding? I'm perfectly happy here until at least the end of the year, which I say every year. Just can't seem to leave Mr. Gross.
Just 2 months ago when PTTRX was hovering around 11.38 ish I was a little concerned about this fund, now at 11.55 it's all smiles again. The performance of this fund year to date is nothing less than astounding, with the adversity in the market PTTRX is a proven keeper.
Still here - posted a recent comment about Uncle Tizz a few weeks ago.
Feel recent QE3 where the FED is buying exactly the same MBS's that Gross loaded up on, will eventually all but squeeze the profit margin between issuing tresuries at .23%/day against 4-5% per anum MBS's - the treasury will make a bundle for awhile as will PTTRX. But will eventually present diminishing return in the intermediate - long term. In the meantime since the Total Return Fund is holding the exact equity that the Federal REserve is buying for the next 2-3 years. This presents a cap gain upside potential unlike that which we have seen in the last few years.
The Federal Reserve has to buy them from someone and maybe PTTRX will sell at a profit. This situation can't last forever but until year's end and since February I've been doing my usual thing trading in and out of PTTRX to cash or equities depending on the circumstances. I'm up about 7% for the year which isn't as well as I've done in the past.
Current market conditions along with international and the Presidential election have made predicting far more dificult than in 2007. I'll probably be holding now until after the cap gain distribution and December year end dividend as we stand to make at least 2-3% in just the month of December. If all goes south between Europe, the market and the election there is no other place to be than PTTRX as far as I can determine. If everything stays about the same we will slowly climb in NAV to year's end and after that I'm unwilling to commit. So I have no compelling other place to commit money to. -pm2u
Post has been MIA ever since he started leaning away from PTTRX around the first of the year, I am thinking he may have moved out of this fund around this time. Turns out it was a very bad time to get out, but I know he made good money on it before.
Perhaps this post will get him to respond.
The problem is where do you move your money to? Most bond funds are near all time highs including Real Return and Income. In fact a legitimate argument can be made that there is a bubble in bonds. If this is true should money be moved into dividend paying stocks? Into CD's paying 1.5% for 5 years? Treasuries paying 1.46% for ten? A REIT? Any REIT? Gold within 10% of its all time high? Real Estate? Rental property? Art? Wine? Comic books?
I've asked this question on here before but if one sells PTTRX, what should one buy? I have a significant position in All Asset but with several CD's maturing I really can't find a better alternative to Total Return.
It's not an easy answer.