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PIMCO Total Return Instl Message Board

  • ariel113492 ariel113492 Aug 18, 2013 5:06 AM Flag

    Bull Flag

    For those of us who use technical analysis to establish our view of longer term trends, take a look at PTTRX weekly charts. At or near long term support of $10.55. If support breaks, $10.30 is the bottom of a channel which forms a substantial bull flag. MACD is in the late stages of decline and on its way to turning up. Same for ROC and DMI. It takes a while for interest rate changes to affect the economy. Between higher rates and oil prices, the enviornment favoring bonds will be established. No, I have no idea how long this will take. Also think that it is counterintuitive to believe that the end of QE should negatively affect bond prices. We'll see what happens when the stock market nose candy is reduced.

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    • All I know is I sure glad I sold at 11.11. I would be down $4500 if I had not. That equates to 1.5 years of dividends down the drain. Its very frustrating my 401k is paying .01% in its so called Capital Preservation Fund where that money is gathering dust but at least I can sleep at night. I dont think PTTRX is a buy for a long time until after the fed policies actually change and the fallout has hit bottom

    • I don't really think that you can do TA on a bond fund, especially one that only updates the price after markets are closed? You're better off doing TA on the underlying bonds owned by this fund, like the 10 year, as an example. However, I wouldn't trade PTTRX regardless, you either own it or you don't for the long term.

    • I really don't set much store by "technical analysis." Having said that, I MAY start to buy this again @ 10.55, and almost certainly would start to buy @ 10.30 Why? No good reason other than a guess on my part. Which is what this whole game is about; guessing what comes next. Anyone who says they KNOW what comes next is lying; either to you or to themselves.

      • 2 Replies to vexatious2001
      • I don't think charts work with bond funds. People buy and sell based on interest rates and ballast for their equity holdings. I don't think they'll be making money anytime soon.

      • I KNOW that 3 to 5 years out, interest rates are NOT likely to be LOWER. I KNOW that buried in the prospectus, PIMCO tells you that this fund posts gains to NAV during periods of declining interest rates. I put the two things I know together and make a reasonable guess that this mutual fund will probably do didly squat until somebody starts talking about lowering the funds rate. Maybe that's a few years out or maybe that's until the next recession.

        I was out at NAV $11.18 and I'm pretty pleased with that.

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