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PIMCO Total Return Instl Message Board

  • riotrock007 riotrock007 Jan 10, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    PTTRX still better than Stable Fund/MM

    Reviewing my current statement, the last 10 days revealed practically nothing gained on Stable Fund/MM and still positive gain in PTTRX (only bond choice) with losses in stocks both foreign and domestic. I'll be sticking with current allocatiwith PTTRX as usual and reducing stocks to below 50%. Just don't have a good feeling about any of my choices. For those that sell PTTRX, i believe they did it too soon.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Yeah, stable value funds will have an increasingly difficult time earning more than 1% after fees unless and until the Fed hikes the short rates off of zero. Unfortunately, PTTRX is so short duration right now that it won't have an easy time exceeding 2% after fees unless the Fed extends forward guidance out to 2018 (not an impossibility). Right now, I think the 5Y is undervalued given the forward guidance, but I increasingly don't understand how the 5Y is trading these days- moves like a internet stock.

    • Ten days. Really?

    • cheryl186 Jan 10, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

      My total bond fund went up .29 ytd, That's the only bond fund that went up. Short term went down and this one is the same.

      I'm waiting until after a correction too and will move 50% into target fund, then distribute between LC growth, EM and MM.

      Today is going to be a super day, but we're only making up for what we lost 2 days ago. I'm also afraid to move into an equity fund because the mkt is going down and most of the funds I have to choose from are index funds.

      • 2 Replies to cheryl186
      • Cheryl, I would just put your money into an S&P index fund and forget about it. That's what I did with 75% of my 401k in 2009 and today I am considering retirement in my 40s.

        In the history of the stock market, if you just kept your money in it the entire time (in an index fund), you would have made money. If you are like me and contributing every paycheck for the last 15+ years, you'd be up big time. Even if your first purchase was in March 2001, you would be up a lot right now if you contributed every 2 weeks into an S&P index fund. Some might scoff at this notion, but think about it, you get quarterly dividends in an index fund (many of the S&P 500 companies give shareholders dividends). Also, if you are consistent with purchases you will buy the dips, as well as the highs. Well, we've had 2 troughs since March 2001, and here we are at all time highs. A lot of people are worried about the market, well, that's a good sign. When everyone is saying the market will go up forever, that's when you want to be scared.

        Why am I typing this? Because I believe that the S&P is about to explode higher for multiple years. I do think we will see a 10% correction soon (which is completely normal and healthy), but even if we do you want your money in the market now because if for some odd reason it never comes you will have missed the opportunity and will be sitting on the sidelines while the market rages higher...

      • With the VIX sinking like a stone, and the markets holding up after a disastrous jobs number, I would think that the boys are waiting for earnings to start the ride up. Ever quarter they lower expectation so they can beat them, this game has been going on for some time. Look at the home builder stocks today, we were told that in order for them to go higher we needed jobs, yet now they are up on a .25 point decrease in the ten year....heads they win, tails they win. With 75 billion dollars a month in purchases from the FED, it tough to fight the liquidity.

        PTTRX, probably bought some time until next months jobs numbers would be my guess.

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