I would think the low volume makes this move fairly meaningless. Big news (3rd quarter) coming out shortly. I read ur blog (engineering reality). I just got in here and I missed your earlier (prior to funny money reversal). Without the rabbit in the hat are u pro UNTK and if so what is your time horizon?
The volume... you may very well be right. We will see, I guess.
On the rabbit stuff, I am probably strong pro at this point (but I reserve the right to take my gains of the table at each and every run-up -- a strategy that has worked well this year) and, also, very-very long.
The guy at Red Corner has updated his blog entry, and summarized the numbers in a way that I sort of like.
I will relay this today, I think. Regardless of all the fancy math, however, the core issue for me is that a half a billion dollar company is worth more than $25 million, and although the debt is a problem, it is a problem that is fairly far out, and in the short term the only problem I see is dodging the covenant bullet (which, I hasten to say, is loaded and in the chamber.) BTW, with the structure around the revolver, things should rapidly improve.
Another way to think about it is that the company's equity dropped from $10 to $1 on noise, not on something fundamental (yes, the fraud and everything that followed was important, but, as thee restatement showed, was really peanuts next to the $500 million revenue profile,) and, so, there is lots of room to move up again.
Risky? Yes, but if you are looking for multiple short to medium terms twofers and a possible ten-bagger, then risk comes with the territory. There ain't no gold to be found in Paris.
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