Has anyone ever heard Wade indicate that oil prices per se affect THO sales in any meaningful way? My recollection is that on several occasions he has pointedly been quoted that consumer confidence is the most important predictor of future sales and that gas prices INDIRECTLY may affect THO sales. I am amazed that whenever oil prices increase smartly, THO seems to take a hit, and vice versa.
For the analytical on this board--anyone know if a correlation has ever been computed on oil prices and RV sales?
Why do you need Wade make this decision. It is common sense oil prices and interest rates will effect rv sales. To make some correlation out of it would be foolish, since it would be so innaccurate. The best thing you can do is look at sales.
Most people buying $100,000 motor home at 5 miles a gallon and $2 per gallon, could drive 250,000 miles for the same $100,000. or 50 coast to coast trips.
If you are worried about oil prices, you might want to add this index to your Yahoo stock chart.
This tracks the Oil & Gas Integrated data. I have hedged this risk by investing in VDE, whicg is an ETF that Vanguard brought out which covers the Oil & Gas sector - (anybody know of an ETF that covers Gas, Oil & COAL?) Watching CNBC as I work, Oil just dropped 40 cents a barrel. BUY - at $34
I think today's price action has more to do with Fleetwood than oil. Bunch of incompetent losers, dragging THO down too!
<<RIVERSIDE, Calif., Jan. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Fleetwood Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: FLE - News) announced that the previously reported $5.2 million judgment in the case between Fleetwood Folding Trailers, Inc. and The Coleman Company, Inc., combined with slower-than-anticipated RV sales, have caused the Company to revise its prior expectations for its third quarter ending January 23, 2005. Management now expects the net loss for the quarter will significantly exceed last year's loss.>>
As far as oil, my recollection is that that THO sales and backlog have trended up whether or not oil/gasoline/diesel prices are rising or falling. Certainly a long trend up since the last recession as oil has gone up dramatically over the same period. The theory being that anyone who can afford an RV can afford the gas, especially if they're saving hotel costs. But I'm sure others like fox would argue with that.